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ENSO afecta a la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte 1 año después

Adam A Scaife^1,2, Nick Dunstone¹, Steven Hardiman¹

¹Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|October 3, 2024

Resumen

El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) desencadena una respuesta climática significativa de un año de retraso en los extratropicos, que afecta a la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO). Este efecto retardado, impulsado por el impulso atmosférico, es tan fuerte como los impactos simultáneos de ENSO.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Ciencias atmosféricas
La oceanografía

Sus antecedentes:

El Niño-Oscilación Sur (ENSO) es uno de los principales impulsores de la variabilidad climática interanual.
Las teleconexiones simultáneas entre ENSO y el clima extratropical están bien documentadas.
La respuesta extratropical al ENSO se estudia típicamente para impactos simultáneos en invierno.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar el retraso de un año en la respuesta climática extratropical al ENSO.
Determinar la fuerza y las características de estas teleconexiones retrasadas.
Identificar los mecanismos subyacentes que impulsan el retraso en la respuesta del ENSO.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los datos climáticos de observación.
Evaluación de las simulaciones de modelos climáticos.
Investigación de las anomalías del momento angular atmosférico.

Principales resultados:

En las observaciones y modelos se identificó una respuesta extratropical robusta con retraso de 1 año.
Esta respuesta retardada es comparable en fuerza a las teleconexiones simultáneas ENSO.
La respuesta retardada exhibe un signo opuesto a la respuesta simultánea, que afecta a la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO).
Se encontraron anomalías de momento angular atmosférico que migraban lentamente para explicar el momento y el signo de la respuesta retardada.

Conclusiones:

Las teleconexiones ENSO con retraso son un componente importante de la variabilidad del clima extratropical.
Estos efectos retrasados tienen implicaciones para la comprensión y la predicción del clima estacional a interanual.
Los hallazgos desafían las nociones existentes de las teleconexiones ENSO y resaltan la importancia de las respuestas climáticas retrasadas.

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