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Los bosques canadienses son más propensos a incendios de alta gravedad en las últimas décadas
Weiwei Wang1,2, Xianli Wang1,2, Mike D Flannigan3
1Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 2, 2025
Resumen
La temporada de incendios forestales en Canadá se está intensificando. La aridez del combustible impulsa significativamente la gravedad de las quemaduras, y los bosques del norte se ven cada vez más afectados por el cambio climático, lo que lleva a más días de incendios de alta gravedad.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Sector forestal
- Ciencias del clima
- Ecología
Sus antecedentes:
- Los bosques canadienses se enfrentan a temporadas de incendios forestales cada vez más intensas y prolongadas.
- Los factores específicos y los patrones espacio-temporales de la gravedad de las quemaduras de incendios forestales siguen siendo en gran medida desconocidos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Identificar los factores clave que influyen en la gravedad de los incendios forestales en los bosques canadienses.
- Estimar las variaciones espaciotemporales en la gravedad de las quemaduras en los ecosistemas forestales canadienses.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos históricos de incendios forestales y las variables climáticas.
- Modelado estadístico para determinar la influencia de factores como la aridez del combustible y el clima en la gravedad de las quemaduras.
- Mapeo espacio-temporal de los cambios en las condiciones meteorológicas de los incendios.
Principales resultados:
- La aridez del combustible surgió como el factor más importante de la gravedad de las quemaduras.
- Los meses de verano mostraron una mayor propensión a las quemaduras graves.
- Las regiones forestales del norte mostraron la mayor influencia de los patrones climáticos cambiantes.
- Aproximadamente el 6% de las áreas modeladas experimentaron un aumento significativo en los días conducentes a la quema de alta gravedad entre 1981 y 2020, particularmente en la primavera y el otoño durante 2001-2020.
- La temporada de incendios de 2023 reflejó estos patrones, pero con escaladas más extensas en la gravedad de las quemaduras.
Conclusiones:
- La aridez del combustible y el cambio climático son factores críticos que aumentan la gravedad de los incendios forestales en Canadá.
- Regiones y estaciones específicas se están volviendo cada vez más vulnerables a los incendios forestales graves, lo que requiere estrategias de gestión adaptativas.
- Las tendencias observadas se alinean con los recientes incendios extremos, lo que subraya la urgencia de abordar los impactos del cambio climático en los regímenes de incendios forestales.
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