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Evolución global de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal en las etapas epidemiológicas

Lindsay Hracs¹, Joseph W Windsor¹, Julia Gorospe¹

¹Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

|April 30, 2025

Resumen

La epidemiología de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal (EII) ha evolucionado a nivel mundial. Este estudio define y modela cuatro etapas de la evolución de la EII, proporcionando información crucial para los sistemas de salud de todo el mundo.

Área de la Ciencia:

Epidemiología
Gastroenterología
Salud pública

Sus antecedentes:

La enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal (EII) se concentró históricamente en las naciones industrializadas.
Las últimas décadas muestran un aumento de la incidencia de EII en regiones emergentes y un crecimiento continuo de la prevalencia en áreas establecidas.
La epidemiología global de la EII está pasando por distintas etapas epidemiológicas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Definir y validar empíricamente las cuatro etapas epidemiológicas propuestas de la EII.
Para modelar la progresión de la EII a través de estas etapas a nivel mundial.
Proporcionar un marco para anticipar la futura carga mundial de la EII.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de datos del mundo real de 522 estudios basados en la población.
Incluye 82 regiones globales que abarcan más de un siglo (1920-2024).
Análisis espacio-temporal para identificar las transiciones entre las etapas epidemiológicas de la EII y modelar la progresión futura.

Principales resultados:

Pruebas empíricas que demuestran transiciones espaciotemporales a través de las etapas 1 (emergencia), 2 (aceleración de la incidencia) y 3 (complexión de la prevalencia).
Modelado de la progresión de la etapa 4 (equilibrio de prevalencia).
Identificación de indicadores numéricos específicos para las transiciones de etapas.

Conclusiones:

El estudio valida y cuantifica la evolución epidemiológica de la EII en distintas etapas globales.
La comprensión de estas etapas es fundamental para que los sistemas de atención médica puedan manejar la creciente carga mundial de EII.
Esta investigación proporciona un marco predictivo para la epidemiología de la EII en todo el mundo.

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