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Las compensaciones en los impactos de la aviación en el clima favorecen la mitigación sin CO2

Michael J Prather¹, Andrew Gettelman², Joyce E Penner³

¹Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. mprather@uci.edu.

|July 3, 2025

Resumen

Aviación civil

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Impacto de la aviación
El forzamiento radiativo

Sus antecedentes:

El impacto climático de la aviación civil se deriva del CO2, NOx y las estelas de condensación.
Estos factores causan un calentamiento significativo, impulsando los esfuerzos de mitigación.
Las estrategias actuales a menudo implican compensaciones entre el CO2 y los impactos no relacionados con el CO2.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para cuantificar la probabilidad de beneficio climático de las compensaciones de mitigación de la aviación.
Desarrollar un marco de evaluación de riesgos para las reducciones de emisiones de CO2 frente a las no relacionadas con el CO2.
Evaluar la eficacia de las estrategias propuestas de mitigación del cambio climático en la aviación.

Principales métodos:

Forzamiento radiativo efectivo integrado calculado por año de vuelo para CO2, NOx y estelas de condensación.
Desarrolló una curva de riesgo de compensación climática basada en las incertidumbres en los componentes de RF.
Se analizó la relación entre el calentamiento global por actividad (GWA) para los impactos no relacionados con el CO2 y el CO2.

Principales resultados:

Una relación de compensación de 1:4 (CO2 a no CO2) muestra una probabilidad del 67% de mitigación del clima en 100 años.
Las curvas de riesgo revelan la probabilidad de resultados climáticos positivos para varios coeficientes de compensación.
Se favorecen los esfuerzos de mitigación no relacionados con el CO2 con proporciones inferiores a 1:4.

Conclusiones:

La huella climática de la aviación puede reducirse mediante compensaciones estratégicas.
La curva de riesgo desarrollada proporciona una evaluación probabilística de la eficacia de la mitigación.
El enfoque en reducciones no relacionadas con el CO2 ofrece un camino probable para obtener beneficios climáticos en la aviación.

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