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Estimación de las emisiones de CO2 debidas a la industria del turismo espacial suborbital actual y futuro
Angela M Huang1,2, Yangyang Xu2
1Ronald Reagan High School, San Antonio, Texas, United States of America.
PloS one
|August 20, 2025
Resumen
El turismo espacial suborbital emite entre 400 y 1.000 veces más dióxido de carbono (CO2) por pasajero por hora que los vuelos comerciales. El crecimiento futuro podría tener un impacto significativo en las emisiones mundiales, lo que requiere una mayor atención a esta industria emergente.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias del medio ambiente
- Ingeniería Aeroespacial
- Estudios sobre el cambio climático
Sus antecedentes:
- Los objetivos de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para 2030 y 2050 son críticos.
- El turismo espacial, en particular los vuelos suborbitales, se está expandiendo rápidamente.
- Existen datos limitados sobre las emisiones de CO2 del turismo espacial suborbital.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Desarrollar un modelo analítico para estimar las emisiones de CO2 de los vuelos suborbitales.
- Comparar la intensidad de las emisiones de CO2 del turismo suborbital con la de la aviación comercial.
- Proyectar las posibles emisiones futuras de CO2 en función del crecimiento de la industria.
Principales métodos:
- Desarrolló un modelo analítico basado en principios físicos y cinética.
- Las variaciones de naves espaciales consideradas, los tipos de combustible (hidrógeno líquido, RP-1, HTPB, metano) y las fases de vuelo.
- Emisiones calculadas de CO2 por pasajero por hora y emisiones anuales totales.
Principales resultados:
- El turismo suborbital emite entre 400 y 1.000 veces más CO2 por pasajero por hora que la aviación comercial.
- Los combustibles de hidrógeno líquido y metano presentan emisiones directas más bajas, pero tienen emisiones indirectas significativas de la producción.
- Los combustibles convencionales (RP-1, HTPB) producen unas emisiones de CO2 sustancialmente más altas.
- Las emisiones anuales proyectadas podrían alcanzar los 21 Mt de CO2 en una década, comparables a países enteros.
Conclusiones:
- El turismo espacial suborbital tiene una intensidad de emisión de CO2 desproporcionadamente alta.
- La producción de combustibles contribuye significativamente a la huella de carbono global.
- El rápido crecimiento del turismo suborbital plantea un considerable riesgo climático en el futuro.
- Se necesita una mayor atención y regulación de las emisiones de CO2 de los viajes suborbitales.
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