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El impacto potencial de la disminución de la asistencia al desarrollo para la salud en la salud de la población en

Margherita Molaro¹, Paul Revill², Martin Chalkley²

¹MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.

|August 21, 2025

Resumen

La disminución de la asistencia sanitaria en Malawi podría aumentar los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad hasta en un 15,8%, revirtiendo las ganancias en salud. Se necesitan medidas urgentes para hacer frente a este riesgo para la salud de la población.

Área de la Ciencia:

Salud global
Economía de la salud
Modelado de la salud pública

Sus antecedentes:

Malawi depende en gran medida de la Ayuda al Desarrollo para la Salud (ADS).
Las disminuciones proyectadas en el DAH como fracción del PIB representan un riesgo significativo para la prestación de atención médica.
La estimación urgente del impacto de la DAH en las proyecciones de salud es crítica.

Objetivo del estudio:

Estimar el impacto de la disminución de la DAH en las capacidades del sistema de salud de Malawi y los resultados de salud de la población.
Proyectar las consecuencias para la salud entre 2019 y 2040 bajo varios escenarios de HAD.
Informar las decisiones políticas relativas al futuro gasto en salud.

Principales métodos:

Utilizó el modelo "Thanzi La Onse" (TLO) específico de Malawi, basado en el individuo.
Capacidades del sistema de salud modeladas en representación de los recursos humanos para la salud.
Resultados de salud de la población evaluados, medidos por años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (DALY).

Principales resultados:

Las previsiones de disminución de DAH podrían aumentar los DALY en un 7,0% a 15,8%, lo que potencialmente revertiría las ganancias de salud pasadas.
Se prevé que la carga de las enfermedades no transmisibles aumente independientemente del crecimiento del gasto sanitario.
El aumento del gasto en salud mejora los resultados, pero con rendimientos decrecientes.

Conclusiones:

La disminución del gasto en salud como porcentaje del PIB representa un riesgo sustancial para la salud de la población de Malawi.
Las autoridades nacionales e internacionales deben responder a las tendencias previstas en la financiación de la salud.
Son necesarias medidas proactivas para mitigar los efectos negativos sobre la salud de la DAH reducida.

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