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Aumento de la exposición humana a los incendios forestales a pesar de la disminución de la superficie quemada

Seyd Teymoor Seydi¹, John T Abatzoglou², Matthew W Jones³

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|August 21, 2025

Resumen

La exposición humana a los incendios forestales ha aumentado un 40% a nivel mundial, impulsada por más hogares cerca de las tierras silvestres. A pesar de la menor superficie quemada, el aumento de la colocación significa un mayor riesgo, especialmente en África.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del medio ambiente
Salud pública
El cambio climático

Sus antecedentes:

La mitad de la población mundial vive en las interfaces entre tierras salvajes y ciudades.
La exposición humana a los incendios forestales es una preocupación creciente.
Los impactos de los incendios forestales en las poblaciones humanas no se cuantifican completamente.

Objetivo del estudio:

Cuantificar la exposición humana global a los incendios forestales desde 2002 hasta 2021.
Identificar las causas del aumento de la exposición humana.
Para resaltar las disparidades regionales en la exposición a los incendios forestales.

Principales métodos:

Análisis de los datos de la población mundial y las estadísticas de la superficie quemada.
Evaluación de la proximidad de los asentamientos humanos a los incendios forestales.
Modelado estadístico para determinar los factores que influyen en la exposición.

Principales resultados:

La exposición de la población mundial a los incendios forestales aumentó en un 40% entre 2002 y 2021.
El aumento de la colocación de los asentamientos humanos y los incendios duplicaron la exposición por unidad de área quemada.
África representó el 85% de las exposiciones mundiales, a pesar de una mayor atención en América del Norte, Europa y Oceanía.

Conclusiones:

La exposición a los incendios forestales está aumentando debido a los patrones de asentamiento humano, no solo al área quemada.
La dinámica de la población contribuye significativamente a la exposición general.
Las estrategias específicas de resistencia al fuego son cruciales para las regiones de alto riesgo, especialmente en África.

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