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Efectos compuestos y en cascada de los fenómenos climáticos extremos sobre el riesgo de brotes de dengue en el
Chloe Fletcher1, Giovenale Moirano2, Tilly Alcayna3
1Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Medicine & Life Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|August 21, 2025
Resumen
Un nuevo modelo predice brotes de dengue en Barbados mediante el análisis de la temperatura y los patrones de lluvia. Esta herramienta ayuda a pronosticar el riesgo de enfermedades, mejorando la preparación de la salud pública para las enfermedades infecciosas sensibles al clima.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias ambientales y salud pública
- Epidemiología y modelado climático
Sus antecedentes:
- Los pequeños Estados insulares en desarrollo del Caribe se enfrentan a un aumento de los brotes de enfermedades infecciosas relacionadas con el clima.
- Las herramientas de previsión existentes no abordan adecuadamente los efectos climáticos compuestos y en cascada sobre el riesgo de enfermedad.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Desarrollar un marco de modelado basado en el impacto que prediga con tres meses de antelación los brotes de enfermedades infecciosas sensibles al clima.
- Investigar los efectos combinados de la temperatura y el índice de precipitación estandarizado (SPI) sobre el riesgo de brote de dengue en Barbados.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizó un marco jerárquico bayesiano para modelar la incidencia del dengue entre 1999 y 2022.
- Se evaluaron las interacciones entre los predictores hidrometeorológicos de retraso largo y corto y los casos de dengue.
- Se puso a prueba un sistema de alerta temprana de dengue para la Copa Mundial T20 de 2024.
Principales resultados:
- Una interacción de tres vías de la anomalía de la temperatura retardada, SPI-6 (retraso de 5 meses) y SPI-6 (retraso de 1 mes) mejor predijo el riesgo de dengue.
- La sequía prolongada, el calor medio y las condiciones húmedas de corta duración aumentaron significativamente el riesgo de dengue.
- El modelo logró una tasa de positivos verdaderos del 81% y una tasa de falsos positivos del 29% durante la validación cruzada.
Conclusiones:
- El modelo basado en el impacto captura efectivamente los efectos climáticos compuestos y en cascada sobre el riesgo de dengue.
- El marco está siendo integrado en un sistema nacional de alerta temprana de dengue para uso operativo.
- La aplicabilidad de la metodología a otras enfermedades y regiones sensibles al clima justifica una investigación adicional.
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