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Enmarcando la salida: encuestadores, opinión pública y la política de retirada militar

Daniel Silverman¹, Caitlan Fealing²

¹Assistant Professor, Political Science, Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST), Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, US.

Public opinion quarterly

|August 25, 2025

Resumen

La opinión pública sobre el fin de las intervenciones militares está significativamente moldeada por la forma en que los encuestadores enmarcan la retirada. Presentar la retirada como una victoria enemiga u ofrecer una opción de "camino medio" influye fuertemente en el apoyo público para poner fin a las campañas militares.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias políticas
Investigación de la opinión pública
Las relaciones internacionales

Sus antecedentes:

Existe una investigación limitada sobre el apoyo público para poner fin a las intervenciones militares, a pesar de su relevancia contemporánea.
La literatura existente se centra en el apoyo para iniciar o continuar las acciones militares, no su terminación.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar los factores que influyen en el apoyo público a la retirada militar.
Analizar el impacto de las opciones de encuesta y respuesta en las encuestas de opinión pública sobre el apoyo a la retirada.

Principales métodos:

Análisis observacional de las encuestas de opinión pública de los Estados Unidos sobre las retiradas militares (1946-2021).
Experimento de encuesta original que examina la retirada de la OTAN de Afganistán en 2021.

Principales resultados:

La encuesta tiene un impacto significativo en el apoyo público a la retirada militar.
El marco de la "victoria enemiga" y el marco del "terreno medio" influyen notablemente en la opinión pública.
Estos efectos de enmarcado son consistentes a través de diversos puntos de vista partidistas y de política exterior.

Conclusiones:

Las opciones de enmarcado en las encuestas de opinión pública son cruciales para comprender el apoyo a la retirada militar.
Los hallazgos ofrecen información sobre la voluntad pública de poner fin a las intervenciones militares.
Amplia la literatura sobre los efectos de enmarcado en las encuestas de opinión con respecto a las decisiones de política exterior.

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