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La forestación puede mitigar el cambio climático mediante el secuestro de carbono. Sin embargo, las estimaciones globales de secuestro de carbono de la forestación son inciertas debido a la variabilidad del carbono del suelo y las restricciones de disponibilidad de tierras.

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias del medio ambiente
  • Mitigación del cambio climático
  • Ecología forestal

Sus antecedentes:

  • La forestación, que abarca la forestación y la reforestación, ofrece un potencial para la mitigación del cambio climático a través del secuestro de carbono en la biomasa y los suelos.
  • La incertidumbre en las estimaciones de mitigación de la forestación mundial se debe a las tasas variables de retención de carbono en el suelo y a las evaluaciones de la disponibilidad de tierras.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Desarrollar mapas globales del cambio de carbono del suelo asociado con la forestación.
  • Proporcionar estimaciones más precisas del potencial de secuestro de carbono en diferentes escenarios de disponibilidad de tierras.

Principales métodos:

  • Desarrollo de mapas globales que detallen las ganancias y pérdidas de carbono del suelo resultantes de la forestación.
  • Análisis del potencial de secuestro de carbono teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones de la disponibilidad de tierras para evitar impactos negativos como el calentamiento inducido por el albedo y para salvaguardar los recursos hídricos y la biodiversidad.

Principales resultados:

  • La forestación, con 389 millones de hectáreas disponibles a nivel mundial (teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones), podría secuestrar 39,9 petagramos de carbono para 2050, una cifra inferior a las proyecciones anteriores.
  • El potencial de secuestro de carbono se reduce a 12,5 petagramas de carbono cuando la disponibilidad de tierras se limita a los compromisos políticos actuales (120 millones de hectáreas).
  • Los cambios en el carbono del suelo se observaron principalmente en la capa superior del suelo.

Conclusiones:

  • El logro de un mayor secuestro de carbono a través de la forestación requiere la expansión de áreas dedicadas a la forestación.
  • El fortalecimiento de los compromisos nacionales es crucial para las naciones que poseen un importante potencial de forestación sin explotar para mejorar los esfuerzos de mitigación del cambio climático.