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Actitudes públicas para responder a los riesgos catastróficos globales: un estudio de caso de Nueva Zelanda

John Kerr¹, Matt Boyd², Nick Wilson¹

¹University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|August 28, 2025

Resumen

La mayoría de los adultos de Nueva Zelanda apoyan la planificación del gobierno para los riesgos catastróficos globales (GCR), como las pandemias y la IA. La opinión pública favorece el desarrollo de planes específicos y una agencia dedicada a hacer frente a estas amenazas extremas.

Área de la Ciencia:

Riesgos para la sociedad
Las políticas públicas
Gestión de riesgos

Sus antecedentes:

Los riesgos catastróficos globales (GCR) representan amenazas significativas para la civilización humana.
La percepción pública y las estrategias de respuesta gubernamental para los GCR son insuficientemente investigadas en Nueva Zelanda.

Objetivo del estudio:

Para medir el apoyo público en Nueva Zelanda para la acción del gobierno en GCR.
Identificar los factores demográficos y de actitud que influyen en el apoyo público a la preparación para el GCR.

Principales métodos:

Una encuesta representativa de 1012 adultos neozelandeses se realizó en julio de 2024.
Dos preguntas evaluaron el apoyo a la planificación gubernamental y una agencia dedicada a los riesgos extremos.
Los modelos multivariables analizaron los predictores demográficos y de confianza relacionados con el apoyo.

Principales resultados:

El 66% apoyó los planes gubernamentales para riesgos extremos; el 60% apoyó una agencia dedicada.
El apoyo se correlacionó positivamente con la edad, la educación, los ingresos y la confianza en los científicos.
No se encontraron diferencias significativas en el apoyo basado en género, etnia u orientación política.

Conclusiones:

Una clara mayoría del público neozelandés apoya la preparación del gobierno para los riesgos catastróficos.
Se recomienda una mayor investigación utilizando métodos deliberativos para comprender la oposición y las compensaciones políticas.

Palabras clave:

riesgos catastróficos mundiales el gobierno las políticas la opinión pública apoyo público Reducción del riesgo

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