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Escenario plausible de emisiones mundiales para 2 °C alineado con la trayectoria de cero emisiones netas de China

Junting Zhong^1,2, Xiaoye Zhang^3,4, Da Zhang^2,5,6

¹State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.

Nature communications

|August 29, 2025

Resumen

Los objetivos de neutralidad de carbono de China rediseñarán las emisiones globales, alcanzando un máximo de CO2 para 2062 y alcanzando cero neto para 2072. Esta vía estabiliza el calentamiento cerca de 2°C sin medidas extremas, alineándose con los objetivos del Acuerdo de París.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias del clima
Ciencias del medio ambiente
Ciencias del Sistema Terrestre

Sus antecedentes:

Las emisiones antropogénicas de CO2 impulsan el calentamiento global.
La transición de China a la neutralidad de carbono tiene un impacto significativo en las emisiones globales.
Comprender estos impactos es crucial para las proyecciones y políticas climáticas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Desarrollar un escenario alineado con la realidad para el camino cero neto de China.
Proyectar los impactos climáticos globales y regionales bajo este escenario.
Evaluar la viabilidad de estabilizar el calentamiento cerca de 2°C.

Principales métodos:

Desarrolló un marco interdisciplinario y multi-modelo.
Inventario de emisiones actualizado integrado y trayectoria de cero emisiones neta de China.
Se ha elaborado un escenario combinado sectorial (SSP2-com) para los gases de efecto invernadero y los contaminantes atmosféricos.

Principales resultados:

Se proyecta un pico de CO2 global para 2062 y cero neto para 2072, impulsado por Asia-Pacífico.
Los emuladores climáticos muestran que las temperaturas globales alcanzarán los 2,01°C para el año 2100, y luego caerán por debajo de los 2°C.
Los hallazgos sugieren que la descarbonización equilibrada puede estabilizar el calentamiento cerca de 2°C.

Conclusiones:

La descarbonización equilibrada y determinada a nivel nacional de China es clave para estabilizar el calentamiento global.
El marco propuesto de SSP2-com ofrece entradas plausibles del modelo del sistema de la Tierra.
Este enfoque se alinea con los compromisos actuales y mejora la cooperación internacional.

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