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Errores de probabilidad en la toma de decisiones de adultos y niños
Dean A Marshall1, Elizabeth Meins2
1School of Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.
Cognition
|September 1, 2025
Resumen
Los adultos muestran falacias de conjunción en juicios objetivos y sociales, influenciados por la probabilidad de ganar. Los niños muestran estas falacias de manera menos consistente, con correlaciones que solo surgen en grupos de mayor edad, lo que sugiere cambios de desarrollo en el pensamiento heurístico.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Psicología cognitiva
- Psicología del desarrollo
- Economía del comportamiento
Sus antecedentes:
- La falacia de la conjunción, donde P ((A y B) > P ((A), a menudo se atribuye a la heurística de la representatividad.
- El pensamiento heurístico se aprende y depende del contexto, lo que requiere un enfoque de desarrollo para comprender sus orígenes.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la trayectoria de desarrollo de la falacia de la conjunción tanto en probabilidad objetiva como en tareas de juicio social.
- Examinar la relación entre las falacias de conjunción en los juicios objetivos y sociales en diferentes grupos de edad.
- Evaluar el impacto de un procedimiento de "pensar en voz alta" en la reducción de falacias.
Principales métodos:
- Tres estudios con adultos y niños (de 4 a 11 años) evaluaron juicios de probabilidad objetivos utilizando distribuciones de chips/bloques y juicios sociales basados en descripciones individuales.
- Los participantes determinaron a los ganadores de los escenarios de un solo jugador frente a dos jugadores y evaluaron las características sociales.
- El estudio 3 empleó un protocolo de "pensar en voz alta" para fomentar la toma de decisiones racionales.
Principales resultados:
- Las falacias de conjunción de los adultos fueron influenciadas por las probabilidades de ganar y se correlacionaron entre juicios objetivos y sociales.
- Las falacias de probabilidad objetiva de los niños no dependían de la edad ni estaban influenciadas por la manipulación de la probabilidad.
- Las falacias de conjunción se correlacionan entre tareas objetivas y sociales para niños de 10 a 11 años, pero no para niños más pequeños.
- El procedimiento de "pensar en voz alta" redujo las falacias de juicio social en los adultos, pero no las falacias de juicio objetivo.
Conclusiones:
- Las falacias de conjunción de los adultos en ámbitos objetivos y sociales están vinculadas e influenciadas por factores situacionales.
- Existen diferencias de desarrollo en la manifestación y correlación de las falacias de conjunción.
- Los procesos cognitivos subyacentes a los errores de juicio objetivo y social pueden ser parcialmente distintos y desarrollarse con el tiempo.
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