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Proyecciones de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático a lo largo de las vías socioeconómicas compartidas 2020-2100

Janine Huisman¹, Rosanne Martyr^2,3, René Rott²

¹Global Data Lab, Economics, Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Janine.huisman@ru.nl.

Scientific data

|September 1, 2025

Resumen

Este estudio presenta la base de datos de proyecciones de GVI, que ofrece pronósticos de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica de 2020 a 2100 en tres vías socioeconómicas compartidas (SSP). Estas proyecciones utilizan el Índice de Vulnerabilidad GVL (GVI) para evaluar la resiliencia social global.

Área de la Ciencia:

Investigación sobre adaptación y resiliencia al cambio climático
Modelado y previsión socioeconómicos
Estudios sobre el cambio medioambiental global

Sus antecedentes:

Las sociedades se enfrentan a una vulnerabilidad cada vez mayor al cambio climático, los desastres naturales y otras conmociones globales.
El seguimiento de los componentes humanos de la vulnerabilidad es crucial para las estrategias de adaptación eficaces.
Es posible que los índices existentes no reflejen de manera exhaustiva la naturaleza multifacética de la vulnerabilidad socioeconómica.

Objetivo del estudio:

Presentar la base de datos de proyecciones de GVI, que proporciona proyecciones de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica a nivel mundial.
Extender el Índice de Vulnerabilidad GVL (GVI) a los escenarios futuros (2020-2100).
Analizar la vulnerabilidad a través de tres vías socioeconómicas compartidas (SSP) distintas.

Principales métodos:

Utilizando el Índice de Vulnerabilidad GVL (GVI), un índice compuesto basado en siete dimensiones socioeconómicas.
Proyecciones de indicadores derivados de las bases de datos de las vías socioeconómicas compartidas (SSP) para intervalos de 5 años (2020-2100).
Cálculo de los futuros valores de GVI para los países y las regiones globales en los escenarios de SSP1, SSP2 y SSP3.

Principales resultados:

La base de datos de proyecciones de GVI ofrece datos integrales de vulnerabilidad socioeconómica para 2020-2100.
Las proyecciones revelan diferentes trayectorias de vulnerabilidad en diferentes regiones globales y SSP.
La fórmula aditiva de GVI permite un cálculo flexible a través de diversas escalas geográficas y temporales.

Conclusiones:

La base de datos de proyecciones de GVI sirve como un recurso vital para comprender la vulnerabilidad global futura.
Los hallazgos pueden servir de base para estrategias de adaptación y mitigación específicas en diferentes futuros socioeconómicos.
El marco GVI proporciona un método sólido para evaluar y proyectar la vulnerabilidad social.

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