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Proyección de incertidumbre en la persistencia del ecosistema bajo el cambio climático

Christina A Buelow^1,2, Dominic A Andradi-Brown³, Thomas A Worthington⁴

¹Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.

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Resumen

Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Los bosques de manglares globales se enfrentan a una pérdida neta significativa, con un 77% de disminución proyectada. Las acciones de conservación podrían casi duplicar las áreas de ganancia o estabilidad, lo que pone de relieve la necesidad de una planificación de adaptación basada en datos.

Palabras clave:

cambio climático de las costas la conservación gestión Los manglares el modelado Proyecciones el restablecimiento

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Área de la Ciencia:

Ecología
Ciencia del cambio climático
Biología de la conservación

Sus antecedentes:

Las proyecciones de ecosistemas globales son cruciales para la planificación de la adaptación, pero se enfrentan a limitaciones de resolución de datos.
Los ecosistemas costeros como los manglares requieren proyecciones confiables a pesar de la alta incertidumbre de los parámetros.

Objetivo del estudio:

Proyectar la probabilidad de persistencia del ecosistema de manglares bajo el cambio climático.
Identificar las áreas donde el futuro del manglar es altamente probable versus incierto.

Principales métodos:

Modelos de red simulados para proyectar el cambio neto en los ecosistemas de manglares.
Se utilizó el escenario de emisiones climáticas SSP5-8.5 para las proyecciones entre 2040 y 2060.

Principales resultados:

La pérdida neta hacia el mar es el resultado más probable para el 77% de las unidades de manglares.
El 30% de las unidades pueden experimentar ganancia o estabilidad hacia tierra.
Más del 50% de las proyecciones no fueron fiables debido a resultados ambiguos.

Conclusiones:

Las proyecciones probabilísticas revelan una alta incertidumbre en la persistencia de los manglares.
Los datos locales pueden resolver la incertidumbre y mejorar las estimaciones de persistencia futuras.
Los esfuerzos de conservación y restauración pueden aumentar significativamente la ganancia y la estabilidad de los manglares.