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Un límite planetario prudente para el almacenamiento geológico de carbono

Matthew J Gidden^1,2, Siddharth Joshi³, John J Armitage⁴

¹International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. gidden@umd.edu.

|September 3, 2025

Resumen

El almacenamiento geológico de carbono es crucial para mitigar el cambio climático, pero tiene límites. Una evaluación de riesgos revela un límite planetario de 1.460 Gt de CO2, lo que requiere reducciones de emisiones para evitar su superación.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente
Ciencias del clima
Geología

Sus antecedentes:

El almacenamiento geológico de carbono es una estrategia vital para mitigar las emisiones de combustibles fósiles y eliminar el dióxido de carbono (CO2) atmosférico.
La capacidad de almacenamiento a largo plazo de las formaciones geológicas es finita y requiere una cuidadosa consideración.

Objetivo del estudio:

Establecer un límite planetario para el almacenamiento geológico de dióxido de carbono (CO2) mediante un análisis espacial explícito basado en el riesgo.
Evaluar las implicaciones de este límite de almacenamiento en la reducción de la temperatura global y en las estrategias nacionales de mitigación.

Principales métodos:

Se realizó un análisis explícito y basado en el riesgo del potencial de almacenamiento de carbono en las cuencas sedimentarias.
Cuantificó el límite de almacenamiento planetario de CO2 y estimó la reducción máxima posible de la temperatura global.

Principales resultados:

Un límite planetario prudente para el almacenamiento geológico de CO2 se estima en aproximadamente 1.460 Gt (1.2902.710 Gt).
Se requieren reducciones estrictas de las emisiones a corto plazo para evitar que se supere este límite antes de 2200.
La plena utilización del almacenamiento geológico limita la reducción potencial de la temperatura global a 0,7°C (0,351,2°C).

Conclusiones:

El almacenamiento geológico de carbono es un recurso finito con implicaciones significativas para la política climática.
La asignación de prioridades y la adopción de decisiones explícitas son necesarias para una utilización equitativa de la capacidad de almacenamiento.
Las estrategias nacionales de mitigación deben tener en cuenta la naturaleza limitada del almacenamiento geológico de carbono.

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