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Carga proyectada de cáncer atribuible al envejecimiento de la población: perspectivas de una sociedad que envejece
Minh-Thao Tu1, Hoejun Kwon1, Yoon-Jung Choi1,2,3
1Department of Public Health and AI, National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, Goyang, Republic of Korea.
International journal of cancer
|September 4, 2025
Resumen
La carga del cáncer en Corea aumentará debido al envejecimiento de la población, con el cáncer de pulmón siendo alto y los cambios en el cáncer de estómago / hígado. Los desafíos emergentes incluyen cáncer colorrectal, de próstata y de mama, lo que requiere nuevas estrategias de control.
Área de la Ciencia:
- En el campo de la oncología
- Gerontología
- Salud pública
Sus antecedentes:
- El envejecimiento de la población presenta un desafío creciente para el control del cáncer a nivel mundial y en Corea.
- La cuantificación de la carga específica de cáncer atribuible al envejecimiento es crucial para una planificación eficaz de la salud pública.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Proyectar e ilustrar la carga futura del cáncer atribuible al envejecimiento de la población en Corea.
- Utilizar modelos de cohorte por período de edad (APC) y conceptos de fracción atribuible de la población (PAF) para proyecciones futuras del panorama del cáncer.
Principales métodos:
- Datos de incidencia y mortalidad de cánceres sensibles al envejecimiento extraídos de registros basados en la población.
- Modelos APC empleados para proyectar casos de cáncer y muertes atribuibles al envejecimiento hasta 2046.
- Las fracciones atribuibles al envejecimiento calculadas (PAF) para la incidencia y la mortalidad.
Principales resultados:
- Se prevé que el cáncer de pulmón siga siendo la principal carga de cáncer relacionada con el envejecimiento.
- La carga de cáncer de estómago y hígado se desplazará a grupos de mayor edad, con un aumento de la incidencia de FAP.
- Los cánceres de colon, próstata y mama muestran cargas emergentes, especialmente en los adultos mayores.
Conclusiones:
- El control futuro del cáncer debe abordar las cargas persistentes y emergentes en una población que envejece.
- La prevención específica del cáncer para los adultos de mediana edad y la atención especializada para los pacientes mayores frágiles son esenciales.
- Se necesitan estrategias proactivas para mitigar las tendencias previstas de cáncer en las sociedades superenvejecidas.
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