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Se prevé que los impactos acumulados en los ecosistemas marinos mundiales se dupliquen a mediados de siglo

Benjamin S Halpern^1,2, Melanie Frazier¹, Casey C O'Hara¹

¹National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 4, 2025

Resumen

Los ecosistemas marinos se enfrentan a presiones humanas cada vez mayores, y se prevé que los impactos acumulados aumenten de 2.2 a 2.6 veces para 2050. Las regiones costeras y ecuatoriales experimentarán aumentos significativos, lo que requiere una gestión estratégica para la conservación marina.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ecología marina
Ciencias de la conservación
Impactos del cambio climático

Sus antecedentes:

Las actividades humanas aumentan significativamente las presiones sobre los ecosistemas marinos a nivel mundial.
La previsión de los impactos acumulados de las múltiples presiones es crucial para la gestión marina sostenible.

Objetivo del estudio:

Trazar un mapa de los futuros impactos acumulados de las diversas presiones sobre los hábitats marinos en diferentes escenarios climáticos.
Para proyectar estos impactos a mediados de siglo (~ 2050) a una resolución de 10 km.

Principales métodos:

Mapeo de las diez presiones clave (clima, tierra, pesca, etc.) en veinte hábitats marinos.
Se utilizaron dos escenarios climáticos para las proyecciones.
Se analizaron las distribuciones de impacto y las tasas de aumento a nivel mundial y regional.

Principales resultados:

Se prevé que los impactos acumulados mundiales aumenten de 2,2 a 2,6 veces para 2050.
Los hábitats costeros se enfrentan a mayores impactos generales, mientras que las regiones costeras, particularmente en las zonas ecuatoriales, muestran aumentos más rápidos.
Se espera que las naciones que dependen de los recursos marinos experimenten una escalada de impacto sustancial.

Conclusiones:

Los resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad urgente de intervenciones estratégicas de política y gestión.
La integración de las proyecciones de impacto futuro apoya el uso sostenible y la protección de los ecosistemas marinos y sus servicios.

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