Video Experimental Relacionado

Updated: Sep 9, 2025

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM

Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM

Published on: October 11, 2016

Evaluación de riesgos ecológicos y gestión de incendios forestales en Tamil Nadu, India: un enfoque basado en el

Gowhar Meraj^1,2, Shizuka Hashimoto², Rajarshi Dasgupta³

¹Department of Biology, Chemistry and Environmental Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, UAE.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|September 4, 2025

Resumen

El mapeo del riesgo de incendios forestales en Tamil Nadu identificó zonas de alto riesgo, impulsadas principalmente por la proximidad a las tierras de cultivo y los pastizales. Esto permite una planificación específica de la supresión de incendios forestales para una asignación efectiva de recursos.

Área de la Ciencia:

Modelado ecológico
Ciencias forestales
Estudios de impacto del cambio climático

Sus antecedentes:

Los incendios forestales son componentes naturales de los ecosistemas, pero las actividades humanas y el cambio climático aumentan su frecuencia e intensidad.
Los bosques de Tamil Nadu enfrentan crecientes riesgos de incendios debido al aumento de la presión humana y los cambios climáticos.
La gestión eficaz de los incendios es crucial para la estabilidad ecológica y socioeconómica.

Objetivo del estudio:

Desarrollar un mapa de probabilidad de incendios forestales en todo el estado de Tamil Nadu.
Para guiar al Departamento Forestal de Tamil Nadu (TNFD) en estrategias proactivas de supresión de incendios.
Identificar las principales causas del riesgo de incendio forestal.

Principales métodos:

Utilizó un modelo de entropía máxima (MaxEnt) solo de presencia con datos de incendio de 2020 para capacitación y datos de 2021-2022 para validación.
Incorpora 19 predictores topográficos, climáticos y antropogénicos con una resolución de 1 km.
Probabilidad de incendio clasificada en zonas de bajo, mediano y alto riesgo a través de los rangos forestales.

Principales resultados:

El modelo MaxEnt demostró una excelente precisión predictiva (AUC = 0,92, precisión de la prueba = 0,88).
La proximidad a las tierras de cultivo (32,8%) y los pastizales (25,8%) fueron los factores predictivos más significativos de la ignición de incendios.
Las zonas de alto riesgo, que comprenden el 6,4% de los rangos, representaron el 54% de los incendios recientes, lo que indica una alta influencia de la gestión.

Conclusiones:

El mapa de probabilidad de incendio identifica efectivamente las áreas críticas para la gestión específica de incendios forestales y la asignación de recursos.
El enfoque ofrece un modelo transferible para las regiones tropicales con datos limitados para mejorar los esfuerzos de extinción de incendios.
La investigación futura debe integrar datos dinámicos sobre el clima y la humedad del combustible para mejorar los sistemas de alerta temprana.

Palabras clave:

No más En el estado de Tamil Nadu Impacto del cambio climático Las variables ambientales evaluación del riesgo de incendio Manejo de incendios forestales Modelado de incendios forestales

Más Videos Relacionados

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Videos de Conceptos Relacionados

Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment

Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment

Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...

Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response

Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response

Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...

Responses to Drought and Flooding

Responses to Drought and Flooding

Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.

Survival Tree

Survival Tree

Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...

Ecological Disturbance

Ecological Disturbance

An ecological disturbance is a temporary disruption in the environment resulting from abiotic, biotic, or anthropogenic factors, causing a pronounced change in an ecosystem. The impact of an ecological disturbance, which can depend on its intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution, plays a significant role in shaping the species diversity within the ecosystem.

Threats to Biodiversity

Threats to Biodiversity

There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...