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Patrones espacio-temporales de asma en Bután: un análisis bayesiano
Tsheten Tsheten1,2, Dan Château3, Erin Walsh3
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia tsheten.tsheten@anu.edu.au.
BMJ open
|December 12, 2025
Resumen
Las tasas de asma en Bután son más altas en personas mayores y mujeres. La lluvia, la temperatura máxima, el NDVI y los niveles de PM2.5 están relacionados con un aumento de las notificaciones de asma, con clústeres espaciales en el sureste.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Salud Ambiental; Epidemiología; Análisis Espacial
Sus antecedentes:
- El asma es una enfermedad respiratoria crónica que requiere manejo continuo.
- Este estudio examina los patrones de notificación de asma en Bután.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar los patrones espaciales y temporales del asma en Bután.
- Identificar los impulsores demográficos, meteorológicos y ambientales del asma.
- Informar intervenciones específicas de salud pública.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron datos mensuales de notificación de asma (2016-2022) del Ministerio de Salud de Bután.
- Se incorporaron datos climáticos, NDVI y niveles de PM2.5.
- Se aplicó un modelo de regresión de Poisson de inflación cero bayesiana para el análisis espacial.
Principales resultados:
- Identificó tasas más altas de notificación de asma en personas mayores de 14 años y en mujeres.
- Encontró asociaciones positivas entre las notificaciones de asma y la lluvia, la temperatura máxima, el NDVI y el PM2.5.
- Detectó clústeres de asma de alto riesgo en el sur y sureste de Bután.
Conclusiones:
- Los factores ambientales y los clústeres espaciales influyen significativamente en las notificaciones de asma en Bután.
- Los hallazgos pueden guiar la asignación de recursos para programas efectivos de control del asma.
- Se recomiendan intervenciones específicas basadas en los factores de riesgo identificados.
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