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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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Published on: July 24, 2016

Evolución espacio-temporal del uso del suelo y la calidad del hábitat en la cuenca del río Hutuo bajo escenarios

Xue Zhang¹, Rui Wei¹, Qing Qi¹

¹College of Geographical Sciences and Environment, Shijiazhuang University, Shijiazhuang 050035, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|December 19, 2025

Abstract:

Exploring future land use changes in river basins and assessing habitat quality are crucial for ensuring the sustainable development of basin ecosystems. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020 in the Hutuo River Basin, this study applied the future land use simulation （FLUS）-integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs （InVEST） model to simulate and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use and habitat quality in the basin from 2030 to 2070 under typical shared socioeconomic pathway （SSPs）-representative concentration pathway （RCPs） scenarios （SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5）. The results indicate that： The primary land use types in the Hutuo River Basin were cropland, grassland, and forest land, with cropland and grassland continuously converting into construction land in densely populated areas over the 20-year period. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, cropland and grassland decreased, while forest land and construction land increased, with SSP1-2.6 exhibiting the greatest reduction in cropland and the highest increase in forest land. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, construction land expanded continuously and intensively. The overall habitat quality in the Hutuo River Basin demonstrated a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the central region and low in the periphery." Habitat quality declined continuously over the 20-year period, with more severe degradation from 2000 to 2010 and a slight mitigation in the degradation rate from 2010 to 2020. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, overall habitat quality in the basin improved, whereas it declined under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, with the most pronounced decline observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios primarily showed an increase in hotspots and coldspots, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for enhancing habitat quality in the basin and promoting the synergistic development of ecological and economic systems in the future.

Palabras clave:

modelo FLUS-InVEST cuenca del río Hutuo escenarios SSPs-RCPs calidad del hábitat simulación de uso del suelo

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