Patrones espaciales del virus de la peste de los pequeños rumiantes a nivel mundial y su evaluación de riesgo...

The Peste des Petits Ruminants virus (PPRV) is highly contagious and capable of transmission through multiple host species. Wildlife, particularly endangered species, faces significant threats from this virus. In extreme scenarios, this may lead to the extinction of flagship and endangered species. This study integrated global PPRV epidemiological data (n = 902) and diverse environmental variables from 2014 to 2024, along with data from China spanning 2007-2024, to investigate the driving mechanisms of climatic and environmental factors on PPRV transmission and to assess the risk of PPRV infection in habitats suitable for wildlife. A PPRV cross-species transmission risk assessment method based on MaxEnt has been developed. The study determined the importance of climatic and environmental parameters, including temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, isothermality, mean diurnal range, mean monthly precipitation in March, and the maximum temperature of the warmest month, in influencing the spread of PPRV. On a global scale, the spread of PPRV exhibits distinct banded geographical distribution features, with the geographic location most likely occurring between 10°N and 50°N bands. The danger level progressively rises from west to east, with the distribution area primarily concentrated in a few Northern Hemisphere nations and regions. The potential threats to species such as Camelus within Camelidae, Capra, Eudorcas, and Gazella within wild Bovidae, and Hydropotes within Cervidae were a significant conservation concern. Our findings underscore the need for a cross-border cooperative defense strategy to restore habitat connectivity and support the long-term survival of these wildlife populations. This approach provides a scientific foundation for the protection of biodiversity and public health.