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Expansión de carreteras y riesgo de deforestación tropical

Jayden E Engert^1,2, Carlos M Souza³, Fritz Kleinschroth^4,5

¹Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|December 22, 2025

Resumen

Este estudio presenta un nuevo índice de "riesgo de expansión de carreteras" para señalar áreas vulnerables a nuevas carreteras y daños ambientales asociados. Esta herramienta ayuda a identificar futuros puntos críticos de deforestación, mejorando la conservación y la planificación.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias Ambientales
Biología de la Conservación
Análisis Geoespacial

Sus antecedentes:

Las redes de carreteras son impulsores críticos de los impactos ambientales humanos, como la deforestación y la sobreexplotación de recursos.
Los datos de carreteras existentes a menudo subestiman la extensión real de la red, lo que compromete la planificación de la conservación y el desarrollo.
El mapeo preciso de carreteras es esencial para predecir y mitigar la degradación ambiental.

Objetivo del estudio:

Desarrollar un índice multivariante de "riesgo de expansión de carreteras" para identificar áreas propensas a la futura construcción de carreteras.
Mejorar las predicciones de los impactos ambientales relacionados con las carreteras, incluida la deforestación y la fragmentación del hábitat.
Abordar las deficiencias de datos en el mapeo de carreteras para las regiones de bosques tropicales.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizó un gran conjunto de datos de 137 millones de celdas raster de 1 ha en las regiones del Amazonas, Congo y Asia-Pacífico.
Se empleó un modelo estadístico que integra datos biofísicos, socioeconómicos y administrativos para predecir áreas propensas a carreteras.
Se desarrolló un índice de "riesgo de expansión de carreteras" basado en estos datos integrados.

Principales resultados:

Se identificaron regiones específicas altamente susceptibles a la futura construcción de carreteras y a carreteras no mapeadas.
El índice de "riesgo de expansión de carreteras" predice fuertemente la pérdida y degradación de los bosques.
Se destacaron los futuros puntos críticos de construcción de carreteras y deforestación, incluso en áreas con datos deficientes de carreteras existentes.

Conclusiones:

El índice desarrollado ofrece una herramienta robusta para identificar áreas con alto riesgo de expansión de carreteras e impactos ambientales asociados.
Este enfoque mejora la precisión de la planificación del desarrollo y las estrategias de conservación en regiones tropicales con datos deficientes.
El estudio proporciona información crítica para mitigar las consecuencias ecológicas de la expansión de las redes de carreteras a nivel mundial.

Palabras clave:

Amazonas conservación desarrollo evaluación de impacto infraestructura

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