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Salud Pública

Meghan H Lewis1, Christopher A Gravel2,3, Walter Swardfager4,5,6

  • 1University of Ottawa Heart Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada.

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|December 23, 2025
PubMed
Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Un alto riesgo vascular está relacionado con un deterioro cognitivo más rápido en adultos mayores. Un enfoque bayesiano reveló que las personas con puntuaciones de riesgo vascular más altas experimentaron una mayor disminución de la función cognitiva con el tiempo, lo que enfatiza la evaluación de riesgos personalizada.

Palabras clave:
envejecimientosalud cognitivafactores de riesgo vasculardeterioro cognitivoenfoque bayesianoevaluación de riesgossalud públicaneurocienciagerontologíabioestadística

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Gerontology
  • Neuroscience
  • Biostatistics

Sus antecedentes:

  • Cognitive decline is a major concern for aging populations.
  • Vascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, smoking, hypercholesterolemia) significantly influence cognitive health.
  • Traditional statistical methods have limitations in capturing individual cognitive trajectories.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • To estimate the impact of vascular risk factors on cognitive decline rates in cognitively normal older adults.
  • To utilize a Bayesian statistical approach for enhanced analysis of cognitive trajectories.
  • To incorporate prior knowledge and probabilistic reasoning into the assessment of vascular risk and cognition.

Principales métodos:

  • Analysis of 4,528 cognitively normal adults (≥60 years) from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) UDS v3.
  • Vascular risk assessed using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS).
  • Cognitive decline measured by changes in Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores over a median of 3.8 years.
  • Bayesian hierarchical models with random slopes and intercepts were employed.

Principales resultados:

  • Individuals with high vascular risk (FRS ≥ 15 males, ≥ 18 females) had significantly lower baseline MoCA scores (β = -1.12).
  • High-risk individuals showed a decline in MoCA scores over 6-month intervals (β = -0.03), unlike the low-risk group.
  • Baseline MoCA scores explained most cognitive trajectory variability, with modest individual variability in change rates.

Conclusiones:

  • Vascular risk is probabilistically related to cognitive decline, with significant individual variability.
  • The Bayesian approach offers a robust framework for analyzing uncertainty in cognitive trajectories.
  • Findings may aid in identifying early risk phenotypes for targeted interventions against cognitive decline.