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Salud Pública

Daniel Arnold1, João Pedro Ferrari-Souza2, Rodrigo C Barros3

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Resumen
Este resumen es generado por máquina.

Este estudio identificó factores de riesgo modificables clave para la conversión a demencia, incluida la pérdida auditiva y la hipertensión, junto con factores no modificables como la edad. Los modelos de aprendizaje automático mejoran la predicción de demencia al considerar múltiples factores de riesgo simultáneamente.

Palabras clave:
demenciafactores de riesgosalud públicaaprendizaje automáticoestudios longitudinales

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Neurociencia
  • Gerontología
  • Salud Pública

Sus antecedentes:

  • La identificación de los factores de riesgo de demencia es crucial para las estrategias de prevención.
  • Los adultos mayores a menudo tienen multimorbilidad, lo que complica la evaluación de los factores de riesgo individuales.
  • Se necesita la evaluación simultánea de múltiples factores de riesgo para una predicción precisa de la demencia.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Identificar simultáneamente factores de riesgo modificables y no modificables para predecir la conversión a demencia.
  • Aprovechar el aprendizaje automático para una evaluación integral del riesgo en la predicción de demencia.
  • Informar las estrategias de prevención de la demencia mediante la comprensión de los impactos combinados de los factores de riesgo.

Principales métodos:

  • Análisis de datos longitudinales del mundo real del National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) (2005-2023).
  • Inclusión de 11 factores de riesgo modificables (p. ej., pérdida auditiva, hipertensión, IMC, depresión) y 2 factores no modificables (edad, género).
  • Aplicación de un enfoque de aprendizaje automático, incluido el análisis de valores SHAP, para la evaluación simultánea de los factores de riesgo.

Principales resultados:

  • Se analizaron 11.107 personas sin deterioro cognitivo, de las cuales 1.052 desarrollaron demencia.
  • El modelo de aprendizaje automático alcanzó una precisión del 66,03% en la predicción de la conversión a demencia (ROC-AUC de 0,745).
  • La edad fue el predictor más influyente, seguido de factores modificables: pérdida auditiva, hipertensión, IMC, depresión, pérdida visual y educación.

Conclusiones:

  • La evaluación simultánea de los factores de riesgo de demencia, incluidas las multimorbilidades, es significativa para la prevención.
  • La pérdida auditiva y la hipertensión son factores de riesgo modificables críticos junto con la edad.
  • El marco de aprendizaje automático ofrece una mayor precisión predictiva y conocimientos para la prevención de la demencia.