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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ingeniería Civil
  • Gestión de Desastres
  • Investigación de Operaciones

Sus antecedentes:

  • La restauración de la infraestructura vital es crucial para la función social post-desastre.
  • Los modelos existentes a menudo asumen una demanda comunitaria constante, lo que lleva a desajustes en el servicio.
  • La estimación precisa de la demanda es vital para una recuperación efectiva de la infraestructura post-desastre.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Proponer un marco integrado y orientado a la demanda para la restauración de infraestructura.
  • Abordar la brecha en la contabilización de la demanda comunitaria dinámica post-desastre.
  • Mejorar la efectividad y la velocidad de la restauración del servicio de infraestructura.

Principales métodos:

  • Desarrolló un método basado en bayesiano para la estimación y actualización rápida de la demanda comunitaria.
  • Creó un modelo de optimización orientado a la demanda para priorizar la asignación de recursos.
  • Empleó un método de solución iterativo y un enfoque híbrido de simulación-optimización para la incertidumbre de la demanda y las situaciones dinámicas.

Principales resultados:

  • El marco propuesto mejoró significativamente la satisfacción de la demanda comunitaria.
  • Demostró una reducción en los costos de penalización asociados con las demandas insatisfechas de infraestructura.
  • Validado a través de la restauración de redes interdependientes de energía y agua en el condado de Shelby, TN.

Conclusiones:

  • El marco orientado a la demanda mejora la efectividad de la restauración de infraestructura post-desastre.
  • El marco apoya la toma de decisiones para la planificación de la resiliencia y la simulación de escenarios.
  • Este enfoque conduce a una recuperación y planificación de desastres más centrada en la comunidad.