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Mapeo de la dinámica asimétrica entre la incertidumbre ESG y la energía limpia: un marco de cuantiles y wavelets
1Sivas University of Science and Technology, Sivas, Türkiye.
Journal of environmental management
|December 27, 2025
Resumen
Las incertidumbres de sostenibilidad, medidas por el Índice de Incertidumbre de Sostenibilidad basado en ESG (ESGUI), impactan significativamente en los mercados de energía limpia. Estos efectos son no lineales y asimétricos, particularmente negativos durante las caídas del mercado, influyendo en las estrategias de los inversores y el desarrollo de políticas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Factores Ambientales, Sociales y de Gobernanza (ESG); Mercados financieros; Economía de la energía limpia
Sus antecedentes:
- Creciente importancia de la sostenibilidad en las decisiones de inversión.
- Necesidad de comprender los impulsores de la volatilidad en los mercados de energía limpia.
- El Índice de Incertidumbre de Sostenibilidad basado en ESG (ESGUI) como una métrica novedosa.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar el impacto del ESGUI en varios índices del mercado de energía limpia.
- Analizar estos impactos en diferentes cuantiles y escalas de tiempo.
- Revelar la relación dinámica entre las incertidumbres de sostenibilidad y el rendimiento del mercado de energía limpia.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron datos mensuales del 31 de julio de 2015 al 30 de junio de 2025.
- Se emplearon la Regresión Cuantil sobre Cuantil (QQR), la Regresión Cuantil Wavelet (WQR) y la Causalidad de Granger Cuantil sobre Cuantil (QQGC).
- Se analizaron cinco índices clave de energía limpia: GCEI, KCEI, RENIXX, MSCIGA y MSCIACWI IMI.
Principales resultados:
- Las incertidumbres ESG exhiben efectos heterogéneos, no lineales y asimétricos en los mercados de energía limpia.
- Se observan fuertes impactos negativos durante las caídas del mercado, con efectos persistentes a medio y largo plazo.
- Las incertidumbres ESG demuestran un poder predictivo, guiando el comportamiento de los inversores en diversas condiciones de mercado.
Conclusiones:
- Las incertidumbres de sostenibilidad plantean riesgos y oportunidades significativos en los mercados de energía limpia.
- Los hallazgos informan la gestión de riesgos de los inversores y las estrategias de los responsables políticos para acelerar la transición energética.
- El estudio subraya la necesidad de marcos sólidos para navegar por las dinámicas del mercado relacionadas con ESG.
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