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Transporte en futuros de cero emisiones netas: Perspectivas del estudio de intercomparación de modelos EMF-37
Christopher Hoehne1, Matteo Muratori1,2, John Bistline3
1National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA.
Energy and climate change
|January 8, 2026
Resumen
Lograr cero emisiones netas requiere cambios significativos en el sector del transporte de EE. UU. La sustitución de tecnología, como los vehículos eléctricos (VE), es clave, con diversas soluciones para el transporte pesado como biocombustibles e hidrógeno.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias ambientales
- Mitigación del cambio climático
- Análisis de sistemas de transporte
Sus antecedentes:
- El transporte es la mayor fuente de emisiones de dióxido de carbono (CO2) en EE. UU., y contribuye aproximadamente a un tercio del total.
- Lograr cero emisiones netas a mediados de siglo requiere reducciones sustanciales tanto en el transporte de pasajeros como de carga.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Explorar el papel del sector del transporte en escenarios destinados a lograr cero emisiones netas de CO2 en toda la economía para 2050.
- Identificar estrategias y tecnologías clave para la descarbonización del transporte en EE. UU.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizó un estudio de intercomparación de modelos para analizar varios escenarios de cero emisiones netas.
- Se evaluaron las contribuciones potenciales de las reducciones del lado de la demanda, la sustitución de tecnología y el cambio de modo.
Principales resultados:
- Se proyecta que el sector del transporte de EE. UU. será crucial para las reducciones de emisiones del lado de la demanda, principalmente a través de la sustitución de tecnología.
- Se espera que los vehículos de pasajeros en carretera transiten en gran medida hacia vehículos eléctricos (VE).
- La descarbonización de los modos de transporte más pesados muestra diversas soluciones, incluido un mayor uso de biocombustibles líquidos e hidrógeno.
Conclusiones:
- La sustitución de tecnología, en particular la electrificación de vehículos de pasajeros, es un motor principal para la descarbonización del transporte en EE. UU.
- Se necesita más investigación sobre biocombustibles, hidrógeno para transporte pesado y cambios de comportamiento para apoyar la descarbonización.
- Abordar las emisiones del transporte es vital para lograr los objetivos nacionales de cero emisiones netas, pero requiere una planificación cuidadosa de la demanda de combustible limpio y electricidad.
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