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Navegando lo desconocido: Soluciones basadas en la naturaleza para la adaptación costera bajo incertidumbre profunda

Haye H Geukes¹, Eva S Visser², Elena V Bondarouk³

¹Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.

Journal of environmental management

|January 10, 2026

Resumen

Las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza (SbN) ofrecen adaptación costera adaptativa pero enfrentan incertidumbre a largo plazo. La incertidumbre profunda impacta la planificación de SbN, limitando su efectividad y aumentando los riesgos de inversión con el tiempo.

Sus antecedentes:

Las estrategias de adaptación costera son cruciales para gestionar los impactos del cambio climático.
Las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza (SbN) presentan alternativas multifuncionales a las defensas tradicionales de ingeniería dura.
Se observa una adopción limitada de SbN a pesar de sus beneficios potenciales en condiciones de incertidumbre.

Conclusiones:

La adaptabilidad y multifuncionalidad de las SbN, si bien son beneficiosas a corto plazo, introducen incertidumbre a largo plazo y riesgos de bloqueo.
La adaptación costera eficaz requiere la integración de la planificación de escenarios políticos y técnicos para navegar las compensaciones de las SbN.
Equilibrar la multifuncionalidad incierta con la prevención predecible de inundaciones es vital para una gestión costera resiliente a largo plazo.

Palabras clave:

Planificación de la adaptación Gobernanza adaptativa Toma de decisiones ambientales Teoría de la sociedad del riesgo Nutrición de arena Aumento del nivel del mar

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