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Tipo de vegetación domina la pérdida de material a escala de ladera bajo lluvia extrema: respuestas no lineales

Aipu Wu¹, Chunzi Ma¹, Shouliang Huo²

¹School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150038, China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.

Journal of contaminant hydrology

|January 11, 2026

Resumen

El cambio climático intensifica las lluvias extremas, aumentando la erosión del suelo y la contaminación. El tipo de vegetación y la intensidad de la lluvia son factores clave que controlan la pérdida de material, siendo las tierras de cultivo las más vulnerables.

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias Ambientales; Hidrología; Impacto del Cambio Climático

Sus antecedentes:

Los eventos de lluvia extrema, intensificados por el cambio climático, amenazan las cuencas agrícolas montañosas con erosión del suelo y contaminación de fuentes difusas (NPS). La comprensión de las pérdidas de material bajo diferentes patrones de lluvia es crucial para la gestión de cuencas hidrográficas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar el impacto de las lluvias extremas en la erosión del suelo a escala de ladera y la contaminación de fuentes difusas (NPS). Cuantificar las pérdidas de material (suelo, NT, PT, DQO) bajo diferentes tipos de vegetación y pendientes. Identificar los factores dominantes que controlan las pérdidas de material durante eventos de lluvia extrema.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron siete años de observaciones de campo (2014-2020) de cuatro parcelas de escorrentía (tierras de cultivo vs. matorral, pendientes pronunciadas vs. suaves). Se empleó un marco de aprendizaje automático que integra Random Forest (RF) con análisis de Selección Secuencial Hacia Atrás (SBS) e importancia relativa (RI). Se analizaron 61 eventos de escorrentía, incluidos 10 eventos de lluvia extrema, basándose en la profundidad de la lluvia y la intensidad máxima de 30 minutos (I30).

Principales resultados:

Los eventos de lluvia extrema (16,4% del total) contribuyeron significativamente a la pérdida de suelo (41,9%) y DQO (49,2%). Las parcelas de tierras de cultivo exhibieron pérdidas de material 2-5 veces mayores que las parcelas de matorral durante lluvias extremas. El tipo de vegetación y la intensidad de la lluvia de 60 minutos (I60) fueron los factores dominantes que controlaron las pérdidas bajo lluvias extremas.

Conclusiones:

El tipo de vegetación juega un papel dominante en el control de la pérdida de material a escala de ladera. Los marcos de aprendizaje automático son efectivos para explicar procesos hidrológicos complejos e identificar umbrales críticos de pérdida de material. Los hallazgos resaltan la vulnerabilidad de las cuencas agrícolas a las lluvias extremas y subrayan la importancia de la gestión de la vegetación.

Palabras clave:

Lluvia extrema Contaminación de fuentes difusas Respuesta no lineal Modelo Random Forest Parcela de escorrentía Tipo de vegetación

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