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Análisis espacio-temporal de la sequía y evaluación de riesgos futuros utilizando un enfoque multíndice de
Ahmet Batuhan Polat1, Egehan Alumert2, Ozgun Akcay2
1Faculty of Engineering, Geomatics Engineering, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, 17020, Türkiye. abpolat@comu.edu.tr.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 12, 2026
Resumen
Este estudio evaluó la sequía en la provincia de Çanakkale utilizando teledetección durante 20 años. Las proyecciones muestran un aumento del riesgo de sequía, lo que resalta la necesidad de estrategias de adaptación climática en los ecosistemas mediterráneos.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ciencias Ambientales; Teledetección; Cambio Climático
Sus antecedentes:
- La sequía representa una amenaza significativa para los ecosistemas mediterráneos, afectando los recursos hídricos y la agricultura.; La comprensión de la dinámica espacio-temporal de la sequía es crucial para una planificación y adaptación regional eficaz.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Realizar una evaluación integral espacio-temporal de la sequía en la provincia de Çanakkale, Türkiye, de 2005 a 2024.; Desarrollar modelos predictivos de riesgo de sequía para 2025-2027.; Proporcionar información crítica para la gestión de los recursos hídricos y las estrategias de adaptación climática.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron enfoques multíndice de teledetección a través de Google Earth Engine.; Se derivaron el Índice de Vegetación Normalizado (NDVI), la Temperatura de la Superficie Terrestre (LST), el Índice de Precipitación Estandarizada (SPI) y el Índice de Humedad del Suelo (SMCI).; Se integraron múltiples fuentes de datos satelitales y se empleó el Análisis de Componentes Principales para un índice de sequía integrado y un marco de pronóstico híbrido.
Principales resultados:
- Reveló una variabilidad climática significativa con fluctuaciones interanuales de la LST y tendencias negativas en SPI y SMCI.; Identificó heterogeneidad espacial en la dinámica de la vegetación y patrones de precipitación.; Proyectó una elevación sistemática del riesgo de sequía compuesto, lo que indica una vulnerabilidad persistente de moderada a alta a la sequía.
Conclusiones:
- El estudio proporciona una evaluación robusta espacio-temporal de la sequía y una proyección de riesgos para la provincia de Çanakkale.; Los hallazgos subrayan las crecientes presiones de sequía en los ecosistemas mediterráneos.; Los resultados son vitales para informar la gestión del agua regional, la planificación agrícola y las medidas de adaptación climática.
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