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Identificación de las cadenas y patrones contribuyentes de las instalaciones viales en siniestros de autobuses
Chunting Nie1,2, Shunchao Wang3, Qinghai Lin4
1College of Transportation, Tongji University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
Traffic injury prevention
|January 20, 2026
Resumen
Los patrones de siniestros de autobuses difieren según la gravedad y el grupo. La infraestructura vial, como las vías dobles y las intersecciones, contribuye de manera única a los tipos y resultados de los siniestros, lo que informa intervenciones de seguridad específicas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Seguridad del Transporte
- Minería de Datos
- Planificación Urbana
Sus antecedentes:
- Los siniestros de autobuses presentan complejos desafíos de seguridad.
- Comprender la heterogeneidad de los siniestros es crucial para intervenciones efectivas.
- Los análisis existentes a menudo carecen de granularidad con respecto al papel de la infraestructura vial.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Investigar la heterogeneidad en los siniestros de autobuses utilizando reglas de asociación y patrones de infraestructura vial.
- Identificar factores contribuyentes en diferentes tipos y gravedades de siniestros.
- Apoyar intervenciones de seguridad específicas y contextualizadas para sistemas de autobuses urbanos.
Principales métodos:
- Se analizaron 14.560 siniestros de autobuses en Londres (2010-2019).
- Se aplicó el Agrupamiento de Clases Latentes (LCC) para agrupar siniestros por factores incontrolables.
- Se utilizó la Minería de Reglas de Asociación (ARM) para identificar patrones de infraestructura vial dentro de los grupos y niveles de gravedad.
Principales resultados:
- Los patrones de siniestros y los factores que contribuyen varían significativamente entre los grupos y los niveles de gravedad.
- Las vías dobles y la luz del día se asocian tanto con siniestros leves como graves.
- Los tipos específicos de intersecciones y cruces son críticos para siniestros leves en ciertos grupos.
Conclusiones:
- El marco integrado LCC y ARM proporciona información matizada sobre la causalidad de los siniestros de autobuses.
- Se genera inteligencia procesable sobre la contribución de la infraestructura vial a la gravedad y el tipo de siniestro.
- Los hallazgos informan medidas de seguridad específicas y mejoras de infraestructura para la seguridad de los autobuses urbanos.
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