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Experiencia de conducción del conductor novel y accidentes de tráfico

Nathan Kettlewell¹, Peter Siminski¹

¹University of Technology Sydney, Australia.

Journal of health economics

|February 8, 2026

Resumen

Aumentar las horas mínimas de conducción supervisada (MSDH) a 50 horas reduce significativamente el riesgo de accidentes para los nuevos conductores. Sin embargo, aumentar las MSDH a 120 horas no proporciona beneficios adicionales de seguridad para los conductores jóvenes.

Área de la Ciencia:

Salud Pública
Seguridad en el Transporte
Política de Seguridad Vial

Sus antecedentes:

Las políticas de Licencias de Conducir Graduadas (GDL) son cruciales para mejorar la seguridad vial.
El número óptimo de horas mínimas de conducción supervisada (MSDH) dentro de GDL sigue sin estar claro.
Investigaciones previas sobre GDL indican un potencial de reducción de accidentes, pero los detalles de la política requieren una mayor investigación.

Objetivo del estudio:

Investigar el impacto causal de diferentes horas mínimas de conducción supervisada (MSDH) en la seguridad de los conductores noveles.
Proporcionar recomendaciones basadas en evidencia para optimizar el diseño de políticas de GDL con respecto a la conducción supervisada.
Analizar la efectividad de diferentes umbrales de MSDH en la reducción de accidentes de tráfico.

Principales métodos:

Se utilizaron métodos cuasi experimentales que analizan cambios discretos en la política de MSDH en Nueva Gales del Sur, Australia.
Se estimó el efecto causal de diferentes niveles de MSDH en el riesgo de accidentes de tráfico durante el primer año de conducción no supervisada.
Se compararon las tasas de accidentes en diferentes regímenes de GDL con requisitos variables de MSDH.

Principales resultados:

Aumentar las MSDH de 0 a 50 horas se asoció con una reducción significativa del 23% en el riesgo de accidentes de tráfico durante el primer año de conducción no supervisada.
Aumentar el mandato de MSDH a 120 horas no demostró ningún beneficio adicional estadísticamente significativo en la reducción del riesgo de accidentes.
Los hallazgos sugieren un posible efecto de meseta en los beneficios de seguridad más allá de un cierto umbral de experiencia de conducción supervisada.

Conclusiones:

Un mínimo de 50 horas de conducción supervisada parece ser un umbral efectivo para mejorar la seguridad de los conductores noveles dentro de los marcos de GDL.
La exigencia de más horas de conducción supervisada más allá de las 50 horas no produce aumentos proporcionales en la seguridad vial.
Las recomendaciones de políticas deben tener en cuenta estos hallazgos para optimizar la efectividad de GDL y la asignación de recursos para la formación de conductores.

Palabras clave:

Restricciones de conducción Licencias de conducir graduadas Accidentes de tráfico

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