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[Predicción de las emisiones de carbono de la provincia de Hainan basada en el modelo de red neuronal de

Yu-Jie Jin^1,2, Xiao-Bin Jin^1,2, Xing-Ming Hong³

¹School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|February 9, 2026

Resumen

Provincia de Hainan Provincia de Hainan

Área de la Ciencia:

Ciencias ambientales Ciencias ambientales.
Economía ecológica La economía ecológica.
Estudios sobre el cambio climático Estudios sobre el cambio climático

Sus antecedentes:

La provincia de Hainan es una zona ecológica clave y un puerto de libre comercio en China.
La provincia se enfrenta al desafío de equilibrar la reducción de carbono y el desarrollo económico bajo los objetivos nacionales de neutralidad de carbono.
Comprender los impulsores de las emisiones de carbono es crucial para el desarrollo sostenible.

Objetivo del estudio:

Analizar las tendencias de las emisiones de carbono y los factores de influencia en la provincia de Hainan (2004-2023).
Para predecir las futuras emisiones de carbono (2024-2030) utilizando modelos avanzados.
Proporcionar perspectivas para el desarrollo económico bajo en carbono coordinado.

Principales métodos:

Cálculo de las fuentes de carbono, sumideros y emisiones netas.
Modelo del Índice de División de la Media Logarítmica (LMDI, por sus siglas en inglés) para la descomposición de factores.
Análisis de lasso para el cribado de factores.
Las redes neuronales de lasso-transformador (PatchTST) para la predicción.

Principales resultados:

Los sumideros de carbono se mantuvieron estables; las emisiones netas rastrearon las fuentes de carbono (2004-2023).
Se identificaron los principales impulsores: intensidad energética, intensidad de carbono de la tierra, eficiencia económica, estructura de uso de la tierra, población y eficiencia del uso de la tierra.
Pronóstico de emisiones de carbono para 2030: 43.455.300 toneladas, con la eficiencia del uso de la tierra creciendo más rápido y la población más lenta.

Conclusiones:

La optimización de la estructura industrial, la eficiencia de los recursos y la protección del ecosistema es vital.
Estas estrategias pueden fomentar la reducción coordinada de carbono y el crecimiento económico en Hainan.
El estudio ofrece una referencia de toma de decisiones para el desarrollo bajo en carbono de Hainan.

Palabras clave:

Provincia de Hainan Provincia de Hainan El modelo LMDI es el modelo LMDI.El modelo de red neuronal de Lasso-Transformador es un modelo de red neuronal de Lasso-Transformador.emisiones de carbono de las emisiones de carbono.pronóstico pronóstico pronóstico pronóstico.

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