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Cuantificación de los riesgos de infección por Vibrio de la recreación en la playa a lo largo de la costa este de los
Yen-Hsiang Huang1, Sunny Jiang1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Irvine CA USA.
GeoHealth
|February 11, 2026
Resumen
El aumento de las temperaturas del mar aumenta el riesgo de infecciones por Vibrio por actividades recreativas. Este estudio predice un aumento significativo en las infecciones por Vibrio vulnificus y Vibrio parahaemolyticus para el año 2100, destacando la necesidad de estrategias de salud pública adaptativas.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Microbiología ambiental microbiología ambiental.
- Salud pública La salud pública.
- Evaluación del impacto del cambio climático.
Sus antecedentes:
- Los vibrios marinos son patógenos oportunistas que prosperan en aguas más cálidas.
- El aumento de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar (SST) plantea preocupaciones sobre los riesgos de infección humana durante la recreación marina.
- La costa este de Estados Unidos se enfrenta a riesgos elevados debido al cambio climático.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para estimar los riesgos para la salud asociados con las infecciones por Vibrio vulnificus y Vibrio parahaemolyticus.
- Evaluar los riesgos de la ingestión de agua durante las actividades recreativas bajo futuros escenarios climáticos.
- Predecir las probabilidades de infección por Vibrio en base a las SST proyectadas para los próximos 75 años.
Principales métodos:
- Se empleó la Evaluación Cuantitativa de Riesgo Microbiano (QMRA, por sus siglas en inglés).
- Las simulaciones de Monte Carlo integraron las concentraciones de Vibrio, las dosis de ingestión y los datos de dosis-respuesta.
- Se realizaron proyecciones de riesgo para 2020 (SST actuales) y 2100 (SST proyectadas bajo RCP 2.6 y RCP 8.5).
Principales resultados:
- Se prevé que los riesgos medios de las infecciones por V. vulnificus y V. parahaemolyticus aumenten significativamente para 2100.
- Los riesgos pueden aumentar hasta 1.000 veces bajo RCP 8.5 y 100 veces bajo RCP 2.6.
- Los riesgos estimados son un límite inferior, excluyendo las infecciones de heridas.
Conclusiones:
- El cambio climático, específicamente el aumento de las SST, eleva sustancialmente los riesgos de infección por Vibrio.
- Las estrategias de gestión adaptativas son cruciales para mitigar los impactos en la salud pública.
- Las futuras investigaciones deberían considerar las infecciones de la herida para una evaluación integral del riesgo.
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