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Un enfoque bayesiano de estimación de áreas pequeñas para las estimaciones de fertilidad y mortalidad a nivel de
Laxmi Kant Dwivedi1, Somnath Jana2, Shekhar Chauhan3
1Department of Survey Research & Data Analytics International Institute for Population Sciences Mumbai India.
Health science reports
|February 11, 2026
Resumen
La India es la India.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Demografía La demografía es la demografía.
- Salud Pública La salud pública.
- Epidemiología La epidemiología.
Sus antecedentes:
- La fertilidad y la mortalidad infantil son indicadores clave de salud pública en la India.
- Comprender sus tendencias a nivel de distrito es crucial para políticas e intervenciones de salud efectivas.
- La relación entre la disminución de la fertilidad y la disminución de la mortalidad infantil es un área importante de investigación.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para estimar y comparar las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad infantil a nivel de distrito en la India.
- Para analizar las tendencias regionales utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Familiar (NFHS) (rondas 4 y 5).
- Comprender las implicaciones de estas tendencias para las intervenciones de salud específicas.
Principales métodos:
- Investigada la tasa de fertilidad total (TFR), la tasa de mortalidad neonatal (NMR), la tasa de mortalidad infantil (IMR) y la tasa de mortalidad de menores de cinco años (U5MR).
- Utilizó métodos bayesianos y modelos de regresión de Poisson para estimaciones a nivel de distrito.
- Datos de empleados de las rondas 4 (2015-16) y 5 (2019-21) del NFHS.
Principales resultados:
- Aumento significativo en los distritos con TFR por debajo de 1.6 (de 21 a 166) y RMN por debajo de 10 (de 79 a 140) entre 2015-16 y 2019-21.
- Número estable de distritos con TFR entre 1.6 y 2.1.
- Se observó una fuerte asociación entre la disminución de las tasas de fertilidad y la reducción de la mortalidad infantil.
Conclusiones:
- Abordar las disparidades regionales en la fertilidad y la mortalidad infantil es vital para mejorar la efectividad de las intervenciones de salud en la India.
- Se recomienda dar prioridad al acceso a la planificación familiar y a los servicios de salud materna e infantil.
- Los datos a nivel de distrito permiten políticas de salud pública personalizadas y más efectivas.
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