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Extinción máxima de glaciares a mediados del siglo XXI
Lander Van Tricht1,2,3, Harry Zekollari3, Matthias Huss1,2,4
1Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Nature climate change
|February 12, 2026
Resumen
Los glaciares están desapareciendo a un ritmo alarmante, con miles desapareciendo anualmente entre 2041 y 2055. Esta rápida retirada de los glaciares amenaza paisajes culturalmente significativos en todo el mundo.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Glaciología
- Ciencia del Cambio Climático
- Ciencias Ambientales
Sus antecedentes:
- Las proyecciones de cambios en los glaciares a menudo enfatizan la pérdida de masa y área.
- La pérdida de glaciares individuales impacta paisajes cultural, espiritual y turísticamente significativos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Proyectar el número futuro de glaciares en desaparición a nivel mundial.
- Identificar el período pico de desapariciones anuales de glaciares.
Principales métodos:
- Se utilizaron tres modelos globales de glaciares para las proyecciones.
- Se analizó la variabilidad regional en la desaparición de glaciares.
Principales resultados:
- Se proyecta un aumento drástico en el número de glaciares en desaparición.
- Se espera que el pico de desapariciones anuales de glaciares ocurra entre 2041 y 2055, con hasta 4000 glaciares desapareciendo anualmente.
- Las diferencias regionales en el tamaño de los glaciares, el clima, el calentamiento y la integridad de los inventarios influyen en la variabilidad.
Conclusiones:
- La desaparición de glaciares representa una amenaza significativa para los paisajes únicos del mundo.
- Se proyecta que la tasa de pérdida de glaciares se acelere drásticamente en las próximas décadas.
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