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Esperanza, optimismo y expectativas para el futuro político

Matthew Barnfield¹, Rob Johns²

¹School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.

Political behavior

|February 16, 2026

Resumen

Las expectativas políticas están impulsadas por el optimismo y la esperanza. El optimismo influye en las visiones de los resultados sociales, mientras que la esperanza da forma a las creencias electorales partidistas, particularmente entre las personas muy esperanzadas.

Sus antecedentes:

El comportamiento político está significativamente influenciado por las expectativas futuras.
Comprender los impulsores psicológicos de estas expectativas es crucial para la ciencia política.
Distinguir entre optimismo y esperanza ofrece información sobre diversas perspectivas futuras.

Conclusiones:

El optimismo da forma a las perspectivas sociales generales, mientras que la esperanza influye específicamente en las creencias electorales partidistas.
El sesgo partidista en las expectativas electorales puede derivar de un sentido de agencia en la política, pero no de las perspectivas sociales.
La información externa puede mitigar la influencia de la esperanza en las expectativas electorales.

Palabras clave:

expectativas electorales esperanza optimismo evaluaciones prospectivas pensamiento desiderativo

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