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¿Es la sobreconfianza un factor de riesgo para el exceso de operaciones?

Étienne Gagnon1,2, Isabelle Giroux3,4, Serge Sévigny5,4

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La sobreestimación del rendimiento de las operaciones aumenta el riesgo de exceso de operaciones entre los inversores individuales. Esta distorsión cognitiva, similar a la de los juegos de azar, pone de relieve un factor clave en la toma de decisiones financieras problemáticas.

Palabras clave:
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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Finanzas conductuales
  • Psicología cognitiva
  • Mercados financieros

Sus antecedentes:

  • Los juegos de azar y la negociación comparten riesgos y potencial de comportamiento excesivo.
  • Las distorsiones cognitivas, como la ilusión de control en los juegos de azar, se estudian poco en el exceso de operaciones.
  • La sobreconfianza, que abarca la sobreestimación, la sobrecolocación y la sobreprecisión, es un factor cognitivo potencial en el exceso de operaciones.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Investigar el vínculo entre la sobreconfianza en la toma de decisiones financieras simuladas y el riesgo de exceso de operaciones.
  • Examinar cómo la sobreestimación y la sobrecolocación en la negociación de análisis técnico se relacionan con la probabilidad de exceso de operaciones.

Principales métodos:

  • Setenta inversores individuales que utilizan análisis técnico participaron en una tarea de negociación simulada.
  • La sobreestimación y la sobrecolocación se evaluaron durante la negociación simulada.
  • El riesgo de exceso de operaciones se midió utilizando un Índice de Gravedad de Ludopatía adaptado.

Principales resultados:

  • La sobreestimación, no la sobrecolocación, diferenció significativamente a los inversores con un riesgo bajo frente a alto de exceso de operaciones.
  • Niveles más altos de sobreestimación en la negociación simulada se correlacionaron con una mayor probabilidad de riesgo de exceso de operaciones de moderado a alto.
  • Los hallazgos se alinean con estudios sobre la ludopatía, donde las distorsiones cognitivas aumentan el riesgo.

Conclusiones:

  • La sobreestimación es un factor cognitivo significativo asociado con el riesgo de exceso de operaciones en inversores individuales.
  • Los hallazgos sugieren posibles intervenciones dirigidas a la sobreconfianza para mitigar el exceso de operaciones.
  • Investigaciones adicionales deben explorar adaptaciones a las herramientas de medición y las tareas de toma de decisiones para profundizar la comprensión de los factores de riesgo de exceso de operaciones.