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El calentamiento global impulsa un aumento en la actividad de ciclones tropicales pre-monzón en el Océano Índico

Kaiyue Shan¹, Fengfei Song^2,3, Yanluan Lin⁴

¹State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Nature communications

|February 19, 2026

Abstract:

Early-season tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly in the pre-monsoon period (April-June) of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin, often cause exceptionally severe damage to populated landmasses despite being less frequent. A critical uncertainty is how these TCs respond to anthropogenic climate change. Here, we find a significant increasing trend in pre-monsoon TC activity in the NIO basin, with accumulated cyclone energy exhibiting a striking rise of 3.01 × 10⁴ knots² per decade (P < 0.05) during 1981-2023, while the corresponding trend during the post-monsoon season (October-December) is weaker and insignificant. Climate models identify increased greenhouse gas as the primary driver, creating more favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC formation and maintenance in the NIO basin during the pre-monsoon season. These enhanced thermodynamic conditions are projected to intensify further, suggesting the increasing trend in pre-monsoon TC activity may continue to accelerate in the future.

Palabras clave:

ciclones tropicales Océano Índico Norte cambio climático pre-monzón calentamiento global

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