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Sobre el concepto de frecuencia de daños inherentes al núcleo: un marco para los pisos de riesgo residual en la
1Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, India.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 20, 2026
Resumen
Este estudio introduce la "frecuencia de daño del núcleo inherente" (CDF), un piso de riesgo residual en la evaluación de seguridad sísmica probabilística (SPSA). Reconoce las limitaciones para reducir aún más el CDF, estableciendo una base transparente para un riesgo sísmico aceptable.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Ingeniería Nuclear Ingeniería Nuclear.
- Evaluación del riesgo Evaluación del riesgo
- Sismología Sismología Sismología.
Sus antecedentes:
- La evaluación de seguridad probabilística sísmica (SPSA) enfrenta limitaciones en la reducción de la frecuencia de daño del núcleo (CDF) debido a la saturación y las incertidumbres del modelado.
- Los métodos existentes luchan con eventos de probabilidad extremadamente baja y rendimientos decrecientes de nuevos esfuerzos de reducción de riesgos.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Introducir y desarrollar el concepto de "CDF inherente" como un piso de riesgo residual en el PSA sísmico.
- Proporcionar un marco técnicamente fundamentado para identificar y justificar este CDF inherente.
- Examinar las implicaciones para la seguridad de las centrales nucleares, la regulación y la toma de decisiones.
Principales métodos:
- Síntesis de la literatura sobre la filosofía regulatoria y la fragilidad estructural.
- Desarrollar un marco conceptual basado en la convolución riesgo-fragilidad y límites de incertidumbre.
- Analizando el comportamiento de riesgo en movimientos de terreno alto para identificar efectos de estancamiento.
Principales resultados:
- Formalizó el concepto de CDF inherente, que representa un riesgo residual inevitable.
- Propuso un marco para su identificación y declaración dentro del PSA sísmico.
- Demostró su relevancia para la toma de decisiones y la concesión de licencias basadas en el riesgo.
Conclusiones:
- El reconocimiento del CDF inherente ofrece una base transparente para definir el riesgo sísmico aceptable.
- Este concepto puede mejorar la optimización de la seguridad e informar los enfoques regulatorios.
- Existe el potencial para extender este marco a las evaluaciones de riesgos múltiples.
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