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Cuantificación eficiente mediante modelos sustitutos estadísticos para la migración de LNAPL en fracturas de

Yuntian Pang1, Cixiao Qu2, Mingyu Wang3

  • 1College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Sino-Danish College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

Journal of hazardous materials
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PubMed
Resumen

Este estudio cuantifica la migración de líquidos no acuosos ligeros (LNAPL) en roca fracturada. Los modelos estadísticos predicen con precisión el movimiento de LNAPL, lo que ayuda a la evaluación de riesgos ambientales en acuíferos fracturados.

Palabras clave:
Modelos sustitutos estadísticos generalizablesContaminación de aguas subterráneasMigración de LNAPLFactores de control primariosFracturas de intersección saturadas

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Ciencias Ambientales
  • Hidrogeología
  • Geociencias

Sus antecedentes:

  • La contaminación por líquidos no acuosos ligeros (LNAPL) en acuíferos de roca fracturada presenta riesgos ambientales significativos.
  • La cuantificación de la migración de LNAPL en fracturas de intersección saturadas es crucial pero desafiante debido a los complejos factores de influencia.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Investigar y cuantificar las características de migración espaciotemporal de los LNAPL en fracturas de intersección saturadas.
  • Identificar los factores clave que controlan la migración de LNAPL y desarrollar modelos sustitutos estadísticos predictivos.

Principales métodos:

  • Se utilizó diseño experimental ortogonal y muestreo de hipercubo latino para generar escenarios representativos.
  • Se realizaron simulaciones numéricas y se validó la fiabilidad del modelo frente a experimentos físicos.
  • Se desarrollaron y validaron modelos sustitutos estadísticos para predecir las características de migración de LNAPL.

Principales resultados:

  • Se identificaron los controles primarios sobre la migración de LNAPL en fracturas de intersección saturadas.
  • Se desarrollaron modelos sustitutos estadísticos generalizables con Errores Relativos Medios (MRE) del 15-30% para las predicciones de migración.
  • Se demostró un rendimiento predictivo satisfactorio (REs<20%) al aplicar los modelos a series de fracturas.

Conclusiones:

  • Los modelos sustitutos estadísticos proporcionan predicciones fiables para las características de migración de LNAPL en acuíferos fracturados.
  • El marco desarrollado ofrece un enfoque factible para cuantificar la migración de LNAPL en diversos escenarios de fracturas.
  • Esta investigación ayuda a comprender y gestionar mejor la contaminación por LNAPL en entornos de roca fracturada.