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Predicción de la distribución global de la polilla halcón abeja del café (Cephanodes hylas L.) bajo el cambio

Kartik Omanakuttan¹, Taniya Pandey², Abhimanyu Chettri²

¹Department of Zoology, Soban Singh Jeena University Campus, Almora, 263601, Uttarakhand, India. kartikzoologist@gmail.com.

Scientific reports

|February 27, 2026

Resumen

La polilla halcón abeja del café (Cephonodes hylas) representa una amenaza para las plantas de café y de jardín. El cambio climático puede alterar significativamente su hábitat, con posibles aumentos o disminuciones en las áreas adecuadas para 2080.

Área de la Ciencia:

Entomología agrícola
Evaluación del impacto del cambio climático
Modelado ecológico

Sus antecedentes:

Cephonodes hylas, la polilla halcón abeja del café, es una plaga agrícola importante.
Las larvas se alimentan de especies de Coffea y Gardenia, lo que afecta los rendimientos de los cultivos.
La evaluación precisa de la distribución es vital para las estrategias de manejo de plagas.

Objetivo del estudio:

Modelar la distribución potencial de C. hylas.
Predecir los cambios en el hábitat bajo futuros escenarios socioeconómicos y climáticos (2041-2080).
Identificar los impulsores ambientales clave de la distribución de C. hylas.

Principales métodos:

Modelado de distribución de especies utilizando MaxEnt.
Evaluación de la precisión del modelo utilizando AUC (0,925) y TSS (0,815).
Análisis de variables ambientales: precipitación, isotermia, temperatura, rango diurno.

Principales resultados:

C. hylas está muy extendido actualmente en África y Asia.
Un escenario de bajas emisiones proyecta un aumento del 6,51% en los hábitats adecuados para 2080.
Un escenario de altas emisiones predice una reducción significativa del 55,46% en las áreas adecuadas para 2080.

Conclusiones:

El cambio climático influye significativamente en la distribución de C. hylas.
Necesidad urgente de monitoreo de plagas y estrategias de manejo adaptativo.
Los impactos agrícolas futuros dependen de los escenarios de emisiones y los cambios en la distribución de plagas.

Palabras clave:

Modelado ecológico Polilla halcón MaxEnt Modelo de distribución de especies

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