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Un modelo de transmisión de dengue informado por el clima con soporte de decisiones bayesianas

Priyanka Harjule1, Harshit1, Divyansh Ramola2

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur 302017, India.

Acta tropica
|February 28, 2026
PubMed
Resumen

Este estudio desarrolló un modelo de dengue sensible al clima para mejorar las predicciones de propagación de la enfermedad. Los hallazgos muestran que las intervenciones deben adaptarse a los cambios climáticos para un control eficaz del dengue.

Palabras clave:
Número básico de reproducciónAnálisis bayesianoModelado de dengue sensible al climaEvaluación de la estrategia de controlEpidemiologíaModelado matemáticoModelo SEIR-SI

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Área de la Ciencia:

  • Epidemiología
  • Modelado Matemático
  • Ciencia Climática

Sus antecedentes:

  • La transmisión del dengue está influenciada por el clima, lo que requiere modelos sensibles al clima para una predicción precisa.
  • Los modelos tradicionales a menudo no logran capturar el impacto dinámico de los factores ambientales, lo que limita su poder predictivo y relevancia para las políticas.

Objetivo del estudio:

  • Desarrollar un modelo SEIR-SI de dengue no autónomo y sensible al clima que incorpore variables meteorológicas.
  • Analizar el impacto de la temperatura, la humedad y la precipitación en la dinámica de transmisión del dengue.
  • Integrar el modelo dentro de un marco bayesiano para la cuantificación de la incertidumbre y la evaluación de intervenciones.

Principales métodos:

  • Se formuló un modelo SEIR-SI de dengue sensible al clima donde los parámetros clave varían con la temperatura, la humedad y la precipitación.
  • Se determinó analíticamente el número básico de reproducción (R0) utilizando un operador de próxima generación para establecer umbrales de persistencia de la enfermedad.
  • Se empleó inferencia bayesiana con MCMC invariante afín para estimar la efectividad de la intervención y los coeficientes de respuesta climática.

Principales resultados:

  • El modelo informado por el clima demostró una mejora del 20 % al 25 % en el ajuste sobre los modelos estáticos, prediciendo con precisión los picos estacionales de dengue.
  • El análisis posterior reveló efectos sinérgicos de las intervenciones: control de fuentes larvarias (0,28), mosquiteros (0,12) y fumigación (0,19).
  • Las condiciones más cálidas y húmedas redujeron significativamente la eficacia de la intervención, aumentando la incidencia en aproximadamente un 19 % con +2 °C / +5 % de humedad, o aproximadamente un 10 % por factor.

Conclusiones:

  • Un modelo de dengue sensible al clima mejora la precisión de la predicción y la utilidad de las políticas.
  • Las estrategias de intervención deben ser adaptativas, integrando el control de fuentes larvarias, la protección personal y la fumigación dirigida durante los períodos climáticos de alto riesgo.
  • El cambio climático exige enfoques dinámicos y basados en carteras para un control eficaz del dengue.