複雑性と気候
Rind1
1NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA.
まとめ
気候予測には,予測可能な秩序ある強制力と予測できない混沌とした行動の両方を理解することが含まれます. 将来の気候変動の予測は,主に人間による強制に焦点を当てていますが,混沌とした要素の影響は依然として不確実です.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 大気動力学 大気動力学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
背景:
- 地球の気候システムは,決定的 (秩序ある) とストキャスティック (混沌とした) 行動の両方を表しています.
- 現在の気候変動の予測は,温室効果ガス排出量などの人類による強制を強調しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候システムの二重性を強調し,秩序ある要素と混沌とした要素の両方を包含する.
- 将来の気候変動予測における混沌とした行動の役割を考慮する必要性を強調する.
主な方法:
- 気候システムのダイナミクスの概念分析.
- 現在の気候予測方法論のレビュー.
主要な成果:
- 気候は,秩序ある強制力と混沌としたダイナミクスの両方によって影響される複雑なシステムです.
- 予測モデルは,主に人為的な強制に対する命令された反応に対応しています.
結論:
- 混沌とした要素が将来の気候変動に与える影響は,現在不明です.
- 混沌とした行動が気候予測に与える影響を定量化するためにさらなる研究が必要である.
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