2100年までの世界の生物多様性シナリオ
O E Sala1, F S Chapin, J J Armesto
1Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina. sala@ifeva.edu.ar
まとめ
2100年までに起こる将来の生物多様性の変化は,大気中の二酸化炭素,気候,土地利用に依存する. 土地利用の変化は,陸上の生態系の主な原動力であり,生物学的交換は淡水にとって重要なものであり,地中海と草原のバイオムは最も大きな変化に直面しています.
科学分野:
- エコロジーと環境科学 エコロジーと環境科学
- 生物多様性研究 生物多様性研究
- 気候変動への影響に関する研究 影響に関する研究
背景:
- 生物多様性は,大気中の二酸化炭素,気候変動,植物の動態,土地利用の変更など,環境の変化に敏感です.
- 将来の生物多様性を予測するには,これらの要因と様々な生態系との複雑な相互作用を理解する必要があります.
- 以前の研究では,生物多様性の軌道を予測するための統合評価の必要性が強調されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 2100年までの生物多様性変化のさまざまな要因の重要性をランク付けする.
- 生物多様性の喪失または変化に最も敏感なバイオームを特定する.
- 生物多様性の変化予測における不確実性の主要な原因を特定する.
主な方法:
- 大気中の二酸化炭素,気候,植生,土地利用の予測変化に基づくシナリオ開発.
- これらの環境要因に対する生物多様性の知られた感受性の分析.
- 陸上および淡水生態系における原動力影響の比較評価.
主要な成果:
- 陸上の生態系では,土地利用の変化が主要な要因であり,次に気候変動,窒素堆積,生物交換,二酸化炭素の増加が続く.
- 生物の交換は,淡水生態系にとって最も重要な原動力である.
- 地中海の気候と草原のバイオームは,生物多様性において最も実質的な比率的な変化を経験すると予測されています.
結論:
- 生物多様性の変化の原動力の間の相互作用は,将来の予測における不確実性の重要な源である.
- 北部温帯の生態系では,以前の土地利用の変更により,生物多様性の変化が少なくなることがあります.
- これらの複雑な相互作用を理解することは,効果的な保全戦略と政策開発に不可欠です.
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