20世紀初頭の地球温暖化のシミュレーション
1Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
まとめ
地球温暖化は2つの異なる期間に発生しました. 気候モデルのシミュレーションによると,20世紀初頭の温暖化は,人間が温室効果ガスを強制し,海洋と大気の自然の変動によって引き起こされたと示唆されています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
- 古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは,古代気候学 (paleoclimatology) とは
背景:
- 地球温暖化は,2つの異なる期間 (1925年~1944年,1978年~現在) で観測されています.
- 後期の温暖化は温室効果ガスの増加に起因するが,以前の温暖化の原因はあまり理解されていない.
研究 の 目的:
- 20世紀初頭の地球温暖化の原因を調査する.
- 歴史的な温暖化期における人間による放射力強迫と内部気候の変動の役割を決定する.
主な方法:
- 結合された海洋大気気候モデルを利用した.
- 指定された時間によって変化する人為誘発放射線強制と6回の統合を行いました.
- 温暖化への貢献を評価するために,モデルの出力を分析した.
主要な成果:
- モデルシミュレーションにより,20世紀初頭 (1925年−1944年) の温暖化は,人間の放射力強迫と自然多十年変動の組み合わせから生じる可能性があることが示唆されています.
- 相対的な貢献は,モデルの気候感受性と内部変動性に依存します.
結論:
- 20世紀初頭の地球温暖化に多十年間の内部変動が重要な役割を果たした可能性がある.
- 自然の変動性を理解することは,歴史的な気候変動の説明に不可欠です.
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