世界水資源:気候変動と人口増加による脆弱性

C J Vörösmarty¹, P Green, J Salisbury

¹Water Systems Analysis Group, Complex Systems Research Center, Ocean Processes Analytical Laboratory, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, Earth Sciences Department, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|July 15, 2000

まとめ

世界的な水資源の不足は既に高く,水需要の増加は2025年までに気候変動よりも大きな脅威となる. 水資源に対する人間の影響は,完全な地球規模の変化の絵を描くためにさらなる調査を必要とします.

科学分野:

環境科学環境科学
水文学水文学とは
気候科学気候科学

背景:

ダイナミックな水供給と使用パターンのため,将来の淡水供給量を評価することは困難です.
世界的な水システムは,環境的,社会経済的要因の複雑な相互作用によって影響を受けています.

研究の目的:

世界水資源の現在と将来の状態を評価する.
水質ストレスの主な要因とその予測される影響を決定する.

主な方法:

気候モデルの出力,水予算,社会経済データを統合した数値実験.
デジタル化された河川ネットワークを分析して,水の流れとストレスをモデル化.
2025年までの水システム州の予測.

主要な成果:

現在,世界人口のかなりの部分が水不足に直面しています.
増加する水需要は,2025年までに水システムの形成において,気候変動よりも支配的な要因として特定されています.
水供給に対する人間の影響は大きいが,十分に説明されていない.

結論:

気候変動だけでなく,水需要も,将来の水安全保障の重要な要因です.
グローバルな水資源に対する人間の直接的な影響を理解し,軽減するために,緊急の注意が必要です.
統合モデリングのアプローチは,水システムの世界的な変化を評価するために不可欠です.

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