人為的な気候変動の予測における不確実性を定量化する
1Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, UK. m.r.allen@rl.ac.uk
Nature
|October 18, 2000
まとめ
最近の気候観測は,将来の温暖化の予測を制限するのに役立ちます. 2036年から2046年までには世界の気温が1-2.5K上昇すると予測されており,モデル不確実性にもかかわらず堅実な予測を提供している.
科学分野:
- 気候科学 気候科学
- 地球システム科学 地球システム科学
- 環境モデリング
背景:
- 気候変動の予測には固有の不確実性がある.
- 予測された気候対応からの重大な偏差のリスクを定量化することは極めて重要です.
- 以前のリスク評価は,専門家の意見,簡素化されたモデル,または一般流通モデル (GCM) の比較に基づいていました.
研究 の 目的:
- 観測された気温記録と,今後50年間のGCM予測と一致する温暖化速度の範囲を評価する.
- 人類の影響に起因する最近の観測された変化を使用して,数十年間の気候変動予測の不確実性を制限する.
主な方法:
- 最近観測された地表近くの気温記録の分析.
- 複数の一般循環モデルによって予測された反応パターンの比較.
- 観測された温暖化とモデル予測の一貫性の評価,通常の排出シナリオの下でのビジネス.
主要な成果:
- 2036年から2046年までの10年間に予測される世界の平均気温上昇は,工業化以前のレベルと比較して,1〜2.5Kで,通常通り事業を続けるシナリオの下で.
- 予測される温暖化範囲は,気候の感受性,海洋の熱吸収,またはエアロゾール反応の持続的なエラーに対して堅牢です.
- 温暖化速度の不確実性は,温室効果ガスの温暖化と硫酸エアロゾールの冷却のバランスの実質的な変化とともに増加します.
結論:
- 観測された気候変動は,50年間の温暖化予測における不確実性に対して強力な制約を与える.
- 短期的な温暖化の範囲は比較的堅固であるが,長期的な均衡温暖化は極めて不確実である.
- 気候変動のリスクを正確に定量化することは,効果的な緩和と適応戦略にとって不可欠です.
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