上部胃腸出血の治療の必要性を予測するためのリスクスコア
O Blatchford1, W R Murray, M Blatchford
1Department of Public Health, University of Glasgow, UK. o.blatchford@bigfoot.com
Lancet (London, England)
|November 10, 2000
まとめ
新しいリスクスコアは,急性上胃腸出血の治療を必要とする患者を正確に特定します. このツールは,臨床医が出血を管理し,患者のリスクを効果的に層分化するのに役立ちます.
科学分野:
- 胃腸内科 胃腸内科
- クリニカル・メディシン 臨床医学
- 医療情報工学 医療情報工学
背景:
- 急性上部胃腸出血 (UGIB) の既存のリスク分層システムは,死亡または再出血のリスクが高くまたは低い患者を分類します.
- UGIB患者の治療決定を導くために,検証されたリスクスコアが必要である.
研究 の 目的:
- 医療介入を必要とするUGIB患者の特定のためのリスクスコアを開発し,将来的に検証する.
- 患者の初期評価のための簡素化された高速スクリーニングツールを作成する.
主な方法:
- 1748人のUGIB患者からのデータに対するロジスティック回帰を用いてリスクスコアを導き,輸血,介入,再出血,または死亡の必要性を予測しました.
- このスコアと簡素化されたスクリーニングツールは,受容器操作特性 (ROC) 曲線と chi2 適合性テストを用いて,197人のUGIB患者で前向きに検証されました.
主要な成果:
- リスクスコアには,入院ヘモグロビン,血尿素,脈拍,静脈血圧,昏睡,メレーナ,肝疾患,心不全が含まれていました.
- 開発されたスコアは,治療の必要性を予測するための優れた差別 (ROC曲線面積0.92) と良好な校正 (p=0.84) を示した.
結論:
- 検証されたリスクスコアは,低リスクまたは高リスクのUGIB患者の治療を必要とする患者を効果的に特定します.
- このスコアは,UGIBの臨床管理に役立ちますが,外部検証は推奨されます.
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